| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 9–6 |
| 4 |  |
Parker | Parker | 8–7 |
| 5 |  |
Bishop's School | Knights | 3–9 |
| 6 |  |
Coronado Islanders | Nado | 3–9 |
| 7 |  |
Santa Monica High School | Vikings | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,567 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 36 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.397 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.01 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 38% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 9.86 | 12.86 | 13–0 | 11.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| 3 | Newport Harbor High School | 6.20 | 7.94 | 7–6 | 4.0 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| 2 | Corona del Mar High School | 7.53 | 8.14 | 8–5 | 7.0 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 6 | Coronado Islanders | 5.21 | 3.95 | 1–9 | 2.1 | −1.27 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 5 | Bishop's School | 5.44 | 3.90 | 1–9 | 2.4 | −1.54 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 4 | Parker | 8.41 | 6.69 | 6–7 | 8.9 | −1.72 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wills Cook | Newport Harbor High School | 2.13 | 3.87 | 7–6 | 4.0 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Pearce Mendoza | Newport Harbor High School | 1.99 | 3.73 | 7–6 | 4.0 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Scott Mais | Newport Harbor High School | 1.63 | 3.37 | 7–6 | 4.0 | +1.74 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Crew Fristch | Coronado Islanders | 2.10 | 0.83 | 1–9 | 2.1 | −1.27 | 0.7 | 92% |
| Amanda Majernik | Bishop's School | 1.98 | 0.44 | 1–9 | 2.4 | −1.54 | 1.1 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Parker | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Sea Kings | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nado | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Parker | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Knights | 2-3-6 |
| 14 | |
Nado | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Parker | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Nado | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Parker | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Nado | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Parker | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Nado | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Sailors | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Parker | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Nado | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Knights | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Parker | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Knights | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Nado | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nado | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Nado | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Parker | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Diego Escobar '20 Jack Egan '20 Jack Reiter '18 |
Emma Batcher '18 Marcus Huttunen '20 James (Jd) Schrady '18 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | Cameron Wood '18 Max Mayol '19 Porter Killian '18 |
Carah Reddin '18 Marbella Marlo '20 Sammy Pickell '18 Catherine Webb '18 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Pearce Mendoza '19 Scott Mais '20 Wills Cook '20 |
Skyler Jacobsen '20 Reid Wiley '18 Madison Bashaw '20 Ryan Potter '20 |
|
Parker | Parker | Cole Harris '18 Jack Joslin '18 Samuel Merson '18 |
Madeleine Mcgrath '18 Annabelle Huyard '20 Luca Bonnano '21 |
|
Bishop's School | Knights | Amanda Majernik '18 John Majernik '20 Rocco Cappetta '20 |
Nathalie Lesser '21 Piper Holthus '21 Shaye Wattson '21 |
|
Coronado Islanders | Nado | Brock Paquin '18 Crew Fristch '19 Tristan Richmond '18 |
Trey Summers '20 Mercy Tangredi '21 Jett Jennings '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
