Corona del Mar High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.44 (fleet 3.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–10 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 17–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 17–10 against 13.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | High School Team Racing Nationals - Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.35 | 3.42 | 9–5 | 6.6 | +1.07 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2018-04-28 | PCISA Team Racing PCCs | skipper | 2.21 | 2.81 | 8–5 | 7.0 | +0.61 | 0.3 | 37% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Cameron Wood |  Roger Williams University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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