Rose Bowl - Gold

HostUS Sailing Center - Long Beach
Date01/03/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Newport Harbor High School	Varsity	42	19	61
2	Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings Varsity	51	54	105
3	Point Loma High School	Pointers Varsity	45	62	107
4	Francis Parker School	Varsity	96	50	146
5	Newport Harbor High School	JV1	68	78	146
6	Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 2	78	70	148
7	Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 1	74	81	155
8	Cathedral Catholic High School	Varsity	81	96	177
9	Dos Pueblos	Varsity	115	79	194
10	Miramonte High School	Matadors	68	129	197
11	Santa Barbara High School	Varsity	122	88	210
12	Sage Hill School	Varsity	94	129	223
13	Long Beach Wilson High School	Varsity	111	117	228
14	Redwood High School	Varsity	119	110	229
15	Archie Williams High School	Varsity	107	136	243
16	Newport Harbor High School	JV2	128	117	245
17	Francis Parker School	JV1	121	144	265
18	Branson School	Varsity	108	166	274
19	Corona del Mar High School	JV1	150	125	275
20	Mira Costa High School	JV1	135	160	295
21	Corona del Mar High School	JV2	132	167	299
22	Coronado Islanders	Varsity	194	112	306
23	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Varsity	126	194	320
24	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	185	146	331
25	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Varsity	186	153	339
26	Redondo Union High School	Varsity	195	168	363
27	Tamalpais High School	Varsity	203	164	367
28	Corona del Mar High School	JV3	196	187	383
29	Mater Dei High School	Varsity	206	188	394
30	Marin Academy	Varsity	186	231	417

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Newport Harbor High School	Varsity	1	7	2	4	9	3	15	1	42	Sean Segerblom '16 Briggs D'Eliscu '16
Point Loma High School	Pointers Varsity	12	2	1	6	5	7	5	7	45	Andy Reiter '15 Jennifer Johnson '15
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings Varsity	4	5	5	9	1	2	16	9	51	Rhodes Garner '16 Kate Madigan '16
Miramonte High School	Matadors	5	20	4	3	13	14	7	2	68	Lucy Wilmot '16 Molly Colwell '16
Newport Harbor High School	JV1	10	1	7	5	8	12	3	22	68	Michael Sabourin '16 Marley Mais '17
Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 1	3	9	16	18	11	4	1	12	74	Paul Didham '16 Mercedes Mcphee '15
Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 2	20	10	6	10	20	1	6	5	78	Johannes Mcelvain '15 Rebecca Mcelvain '15
Cathedral Catholic High School	Varsity	OCS	4	13	2	4	19	2	6	81	Charlie Miller '15 Alexandra Fayer '15
Sage Hill School	Varsity	15	13	15	24	7	6	10	4	94	Jacob Rosenberg '16 Madison Nadelman '16
Francis Parker School	Varsity	2	11	25	13	6	5	17	17	96	Cole Harris '18 Jeremy Mcculloch '18
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	28	6	11	7	23	8	14	10	107	Dylan Meade '16 Cameron Gibson '15
Branson School	Varsity	13	3	17	11	2	16	25	21	108	Will Dana '15 Kamila Harting '18
Long Beach Wilson High School	Varsity	8	8	12	21	16	22	11	13	111	Sawyer Gibbs '16 [1-4] Riley Gibbs '15 [5-8] Kyle Blair '17 [1-2, 5-6] Trent Turigliatto '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Dos Pueblos	Varsity	21	23	14	8	3	15	13	18	115	Frank Doyle '18 Caroline Gay '15
Redwood High School	Varsity	19	19	18	12	22	10	8	11	119	Will Martens '16 Lucie Welles '16
Francis Parker School	JV1	22	17	24	17	14	20	4	3	121	Jack Ryan '15 Athena Malcolm '16
Santa Barbara High School	Varsity	16	25	21	1	15	9	21	14	122	Evan Heffernan '16 Lauren Seigel '16
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Varsity	6	12	3	16	24	17	28	20	126	Cameron Feves '18 [1-4] Luke Van Lant '16 [5-8] Jake Zieba '18 [1-4] Beth Golison '16 [5-6] Kyle Van Lant '18 [7-8]
Newport Harbor High School	JV2	9	14	10	14	10	18	29	24	128	Will Johnson '15 [1-4] Patrick Shannon '16 [5-8] Emily Overstreet '17 [1-4] Grace Blackman '16 [5-8]
Corona del Mar High School	JV2	7	16	23	15	17	13	18	23	132	John Horton '17 Carah Reddin '18
Mira Costa High School	JV1	18	21	8	DSQ	18	11	12	16	135	Peter Neal '16 Sara James '17
Corona del Mar High School	JV1	14	18	20	23	19	24	24	8	150	Sean Dahl '17 Victoria Thompson '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	24	28	26	25	21	27	9	25	185	Sammy Shea '15 Chloe Bohannon '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Varsity	26	26	19	22	27	25	26	15	186	Hannah Baylis '15 Paloma Palmer '15
Marin Academy	Varsity	29	27	30	28	12	21	20	19	186	Alyson Crowley '16 Ainsley Ball '17
Coronado Islanders	Varsity	23	15	28	20	25	26	30	27	194	Nicole Simon '16 [1-8] Evan Arnold '17 [1-4, 7-8] Sam Roughneen '18 [5-6]
Redondo Union High School	Varsity	27	29	9	26	29	28	19	28	195	Emi Stephanoff '17 [1-6] Sean Tallman '18 [7-8] Sophia Schuman '17 [1-6] Cameron Vittiglio '15 [7-8]
Corona del Mar High School	JV3	11	24	22	27	26	29	27	30	196	Robert Garrett '17 Laurel Foster '18
Tamalpais High School	Varsity	25	22	27	29	28	23	23	26	203	Hayden Potter '16 Francis Streitman '17
Mater Dei High School	Varsity	17	30	29	19	30	30	22	29	206	Madison Cardullo '15 Jessica Correa '15

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Newport Harbor High School	Varsity	1	3	1	2	1	8	2	1	19	Campbell D'Eliscu '15 Madeline Bubb '16
Francis Parker School	Varsity	2	1	8	14	3	1	8	13	50	Samuel Merson '18 Madeleine Mcgrath '18
Corona del Mar High School	Sea Kings Varsity	3	2	7	4	10	10	7	11	54	Derek Pickell '16 Kira Woods '15
Point Loma High School	Pointers Varsity	11	6	9	3	7	7	11	8	62	Cole Baker '16 Grace Haselton '16
Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 2	19	11	6	9	6	2	14	3	70	Jack Reiter '18 Steven Leuck '16
Newport Harbor High School	JV1	7	13	5	5	16	27	3	2	78	Carter Scott '16 Eliza Moody '16
Dos Pueblos	Varsity	10	7	14	8	13	5	6	16	79	Ryan Eastwood '18 Chris Kayda '19
Point Loma High School	Pointers JV 1	6	5	20	21	4	16	5	4	81	Jeremy Cienfuegos '16 Remy Reynolds '17
Santa Barbara High School	Varsity	21	25	4	7	12	13	1	5	88	Soren Wilde '15 [1-6] Lucas Pierce '17 [7-8] Jodie Jacobs '16 [1-6]
Cathedral Catholic High School	Varsity	23	21	2	1	5	12	13	19	96	Ryan Ratliffe '17 Elizabeth Matheson '16
Redwood High School	Varsity	8	10	23	16	17	4	25	7	110	Ted Bascom '15 Sarah Bunney '15
Coronado Islanders	Varsity	17	14	22	11	20	15	4	9	112	Grace Yakutis '16 [1-2, 5-6] Augie Sturm '15 [3-4, 7-8] Tanner Chapko '17 [1-2, 7-8] Casey King '16 [3-6]
Long Beach Wilson High School	Varsity	4	8	18	22	14	17	10	24	117	Jack Berg '17 Hailey Thompson '18
Newport Harbor High School	JV2	5	9	13	27	9	18	19	17	117	Davis Hanscom '15 [1-4] Maddie Kraus '16 [5-8] Grace Vandervort '17 [1-4] Katie Mcallister '17 [5-8]
Corona del Mar High School	JV1	16	4	15	23	22	9	16	20	125	Porter Killian '18 [1-8] Ian Sellinger '18 [1-6] Sammy Pickell '18 [7-8]
Miramonte High School	Matadors	14	24	26	19	2	3	15	26	129	Kai Otsmaa '17 Sally Wilmot '18
Sage Hill School	Varsity	18	18	3	6	15	23	21	25	129	Connor Chung '16 [1-2, 7-8] Wells Drayton '17 [3-6] Paige Okey '17 [1-6] Jodie Horowitz '15 [7-8]
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	26	12	17	26	8	20	9	18	136	Sam Barton '17 Delaney Hunt '17
Francis Parker School	JV1	22	28	10	25	11	19	23	6	144	Lucas Wright '15 Ryley Ryan '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	9	27	28	29	18	6	17	12	146	Nolan Van Dine '15 Juliana Testa '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Varsity	13	17	12	15	25	29	27	15	153	Will Paulsen '15 Sarah Paulsen '16
Mira Costa High School	JV1	27	26	25	10	24	14	12	22	160	Geoffrey St. John '15 [1-8] Duke Saunders '16 [1-2] Tyler Sherman '16 [3-4] Leah James '17 [5-8]
Tamalpais High School	Varsity	12	16	27	24	26	25	20	14	164	Jack Duncan '15 [1-4, 7-8] Tye Varnes '17 [5-6] Makena Barkus '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Branson School	Varsity	25	23	19	20	19	24	26	10	166	Jackson Ritter '16 Daniel Pascal '17
Corona del Mar High School	JV2	15	22	21	12	28	11	30	28	167	Cameron Wood '18 [1-8] Jonathan Cheadle '16 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Sellinger '16 [3-4] Nadia Fariania '16 [7-8]
Redondo Union High School	Varsity	20	15	11	18	23	30	28	23	168	Daniel Belton '16 [1-8] Sean Tallman '18 [1-4] Angela Stuckey '16 [5-6] Sophia Schuman '17 [7-8]
Corona del Mar High School	JV3	28	30	16	17	29	22	18	27	187	Jack Detmers '17 [1-2, 7-8] Michael Farris '17 [3-6] Nikki Daoust '17 [1-2, 5-8] Madeline Marine '16 [3-4]
Mater Dei High School	Varsity	24	20	24	28	21	28	22	21	188	Robert Bents '16 [1-8] Carlos Greenway '18 [1-6] Jacob Nquyen '17 [7-8]
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Varsity	29	19	29	13	30	21	24	29	194	Julia Jaynes '15 [1-4] Emily Golison '15 [5-8] James Giles '18 [1-4] Meredith Dobson '15 [5-8]
Marin Academy	Varsity	30	29	30	30	27	26	29	30	231	John Rusbarsky '15 Olivia Fisher-Smith '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Cathedral Catholic High School Varsity	64	64	62	62	60	60	58	58
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Varsity	63	63	35	35	37	37	39	39
Corona del Mar High School JV1	61	61	63	63	35	35	37	37
Corona del Mar High School JV2	60	60	58	58	56	56	54	54
Corona del Mar High School JV3	59	59	61	61	63	63	35	35
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity	62	62	60	60	58	58	56	56
Coronado Islanders Varsity	58	58	56	56	54	54	52	52
Dos Pueblos Varsity	57	57	59	59	61	61	63	63
Francis Parker School JV1	55	55	57	57	59	59	61	61
Francis Parker School Varsity	56	56	54	54	52	52	50	50
Long Beach Polytechnic HS Varsity	54	54	52	52	50	50	48	48
Long Beach Wilson High School Varsity	53	53	55	55	57	57	59	59
Marin Academy Varsity	52	52	50	50	48	48	46	46
Mater Dei High School Varsity	51	51	53	53	55	55	57	57
Mira Costa High School JV1	50	50	48	48	46	46	44	44
Miramonte High School Matadors	49	49	51	51	53	53	55	55
Newport Harbor High School JV1	47	47	49	49	51	51	53	53
Newport Harbor High School JV2	46	46	44	44	42	42	40	40
Newport Harbor High School Varsity	48	48	46	46	44	44	42	42
Point Loma High School Pointers JV 1	44	44	42	42	40	40	38	38
Point Loma High School Pointers JV 2	43	43	45	45	47	47	49	49
Point Loma High School Pointers Varsity	45	45	47	47	49	49	51	51
Redondo Union High School Varsity	42	42	40	40	38	38	36	36
Redwood High School Varsity	41	41	43	43	45	45	47	47
Sage Hill School Varsity	40	40	38	38	36	36	64	64
Santa Barbara High School Varsity	39	39	41	41	43	43	45	45
Archie Williams High School Varsity	38	38	36	36	64	64	62	62
Tamalpais High School Varsity	37	37	39	39	41	41	43	43
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	36	36	64	64	62	62	60	60
Branson School Varsity	35	35	37	37	39	39	41	41

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Cathedral Catholic High School Varsity	63	63	61	61	59	59	57	57
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Varsity	64	64	36	36	38	38	40	40
Corona del Mar High School JV1	62	62	64	64	36	36	38	38
Corona del Mar High School JV2	59	59	57	57	55	55	53	53
Corona del Mar High School JV3	60	60	62	62	64	64	36	36
Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity	61	61	59	59	57	57	55	55
Coronado Islanders Varsity	57	57	55	55	53	53	51	51
Dos Pueblos Varsity	58	58	60	60	62	62	64	64
Francis Parker School JV1	56	56	58	58	60	60	62	62
Francis Parker School Varsity	55	55	53	53	51	51	49	49
Long Beach Polytechnic HS Varsity	53	53	51	51	49	49	47	47
Long Beach Wilson High School Varsity	54	54	56	56	58	58	60	60
Marin Academy Varsity	51	51	49	49	47	47	45	45
Mater Dei High School Varsity	52	52	54	54	56	56	58	58
Mira Costa High School JV1	49	49	47	47	45	45	43	43
Miramonte High School Matadors	50	50	52	52	54	54	56	56
Newport Harbor High School JV1	48	48	50	50	52	52	54	54
Newport Harbor High School JV2	45	45	43	43	41	41	39	39
Newport Harbor High School Varsity	47	47	45	45	43	43	41	41
Point Loma High School Pointers JV 1	43	43	41	41	39	39	37	37
Point Loma High School Pointers JV 2	44	44	46	46	48	48	50	50
Point Loma High School Pointers Varsity	46	46	48	48	50	50	52	52
Redondo Union High School Varsity	41	41	39	39	37	37	35	35
Redwood High School Varsity	42	42	44	44	46	46	48	48
Sage Hill School Varsity	39	39	37	37	35	35	63	63
Santa Barbara High School Varsity	40	40	42	42	44	44	46	46
Archie Williams High School Varsity	37	37	35	35	63	63	61	61
Tamalpais High School Varsity	38	38	40	40	42	42	44	44
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	35	35	63	63	61	61	59	59
Branson School Varsity	36	36	38	38	40	40	42	42

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Archie Williams High School	Dylan Meade '16	Cameron Gibson '15
Varsity	Sam Barton '17	Delaney Hunt '17
Branson School	Will Dana '15	Kamila Harting '18
Varsity	Jackson Ritter '16	Daniel Pascal '17
Cathedral Catholic High School	Charlie Miller '15	Alexandra Fayer '15
Varsity	Ryan Ratliffe '17	Elizabeth Matheson '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Hannah Baylis '15	Paloma Palmer '15
Varsity	Will Paulsen '15	Sarah Paulsen '16
Corona del Mar High School	Sean Dahl '17	Victoria Thompson '17
JV1	Porter Killian '18 [1-8]	Ian Sellinger '18 [1-6] Sammy Pickell '18 [7-8]
Corona del Mar High School	John Horton '17	Carah Reddin '18
JV2	Cameron Wood '18 [1-8]	Jonathan Cheadle '16 [1-2, 5-6] Jordan Sellinger '16 [3-4] Nadia Fariania '16 [7-8]
Corona del Mar High School	Robert Garrett '17	Laurel Foster '18
JV3	Jack Detmers '17 [1-2, 7-8] Michael Farris '17 [3-6]	Nikki Daoust '17 [1-2, 5-8] Madeline Marine '16 [3-4]
Corona del Mar High School	Rhodes Garner '16	Kate Madigan '16
Sea Kings Varsity	Derek Pickell '16	Kira Woods '15
Coronado Islanders	Nicole Simon '16 [1-8]	Evan Arnold '17 [1-4, 7-8] Sam Roughneen '18 [5-6]
Varsity	Grace Yakutis '16 [1-2, 5-6] Augie Sturm '15 [3-4, 7-8]	Tanner Chapko '17 [1-2, 7-8] Casey King '16 [3-6]
Dos Pueblos	Frank Doyle '18	Caroline Gay '15
Varsity	Ryan Eastwood '18	Chris Kayda '19
Francis Parker School	Jack Ryan '15	Athena Malcolm '16
JV1	Lucas Wright '15	Ryley Ryan '17
Francis Parker School	Cole Harris '18	Jeremy Mcculloch '18
Varsity	Samuel Merson '18	Madeleine Mcgrath '18
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Cameron Feves '18 [1-4] Luke Van Lant '16 [5-8]	Jake Zieba '18 [1-4] Beth Golison '16 [5-6] Kyle Van Lant '18 [7-8]
Varsity	Julia Jaynes '15 [1-4] Emily Golison '15 [5-8]	James Giles '18 [1-4] Meredith Dobson '15 [5-8]
Long Beach Wilson High School	Sawyer Gibbs '16 [1-4] Riley Gibbs '15 [5-8]	Kyle Blair '17 [1-2, 5-6] Trent Turigliatto '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity	Jack Berg '17	Hailey Thompson '18
Marin Academy	Alyson Crowley '16	Ainsley Ball '17
Varsity	John Rusbarsky '15	Olivia Fisher-Smith '16
Mater Dei High School	Madison Cardullo '15	Jessica Correa '15
Varsity	Robert Bents '16 [1-8]	Carlos Greenway '18 [1-6] Jacob Nquyen '17 [7-8]
Mira Costa High School	Peter Neal '16	Sara James '17
JV1	Geoffrey St. John '15 [1-8]	Duke Saunders '16 [1-2] Tyler Sherman '16 [3-4] Leah James '17 [5-8]
Miramonte High School	Lucy Wilmot '16	Molly Colwell '16
Matadors	Kai Otsmaa '17	Sally Wilmot '18
Newport Harbor High School	Michael Sabourin '16	Marley Mais '17
JV1	Carter Scott '16	Eliza Moody '16
Newport Harbor High School	Will Johnson '15 [1-4] Patrick Shannon '16 [5-8]	Emily Overstreet '17 [1-4] Grace Blackman '16 [5-8]
JV2	Davis Hanscom '15 [1-4] Maddie Kraus '16 [5-8]	Grace Vandervort '17 [1-4] Katie Mcallister '17 [5-8]
Newport Harbor High School	Sean Segerblom '16	Briggs D'Eliscu '16
Varsity	Campbell D'Eliscu '15	Madeline Bubb '16
Point Loma High School	Paul Didham '16	Mercedes Mcphee '15
Pointers JV 1	Jeremy Cienfuegos '16	Remy Reynolds '17
Point Loma High School	Johannes Mcelvain '15	Rebecca Mcelvain '15
Pointers JV 2	Jack Reiter '18	Steven Leuck '16
Point Loma High School	Andy Reiter '15	Jennifer Johnson '15
Pointers Varsity	Cole Baker '16	Grace Haselton '16
Redondo Union High School	Emi Stephanoff '17 [1-6] Sean Tallman '18 [7-8]	Sophia Schuman '17 [1-6] Cameron Vittiglio '15 [7-8]
Varsity	Daniel Belton '16 [1-8]	Sean Tallman '18 [1-4] Angela Stuckey '16 [5-6] Sophia Schuman '17 [7-8]
Redwood High School	Will Martens '16	Lucie Welles '16
Varsity	Ted Bascom '15	Sarah Bunney '15
Sage Hill School	Jacob Rosenberg '16	Madison Nadelman '16
Varsity	Connor Chung '16 [1-2, 7-8] Wells Drayton '17 [3-6]	Paige Okey '17 [1-6] Jodie Horowitz '15 [7-8]
Santa Barbara High School	Evan Heffernan '16	Lauren Seigel '16
Varsity	Soren Wilde '15 [1-6] Lucas Pierce '17 [7-8]	Jodie Jacobs '16 [1-6]
Tamalpais High School	Hayden Potter '16	Francis Streitman '17
Varsity	Jack Duncan '15 [1-4, 7-8] Tye Varnes '17 [5-6]	Makena Barkus '18 [1-4, 7-8]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Sammy Shea '15	Chloe Bohannon '16
Breakers	Nolan Van Dine '15	Juliana Testa '17

Conditions — 01/03/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 58°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.9 kn

avg · max 4.1 kn

Gusts to 8.6 kn

From S (180°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1023.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn · W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at US Sailing Center - Long Beach: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at US Sailing Center - Long Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at US Sailing Center - Long Beach: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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