Sage Hill School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 2–1 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (9 matches) the record is 1–8 against 1.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-23 | PCISA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.54 | 0.58 | 1–8 | 1.8 | −0.96 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| PCISA #4 Golden Bear GOLD | Skipper | A | 6 | 21.0 | -0.42 |
| PCISA Gold Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.7 | 0.23 |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Sea Otter Regatta, Gold | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.9 | 0.49 |
| Rose Bowl - Gold | Skipper | B | 8 | 18.4 | 0.29 |
| 2015 Anteater Regatta - Silver | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.4 | 1.52 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| PCISA 4 GOLDEN BEAR GOLD | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.3 | 0.73 |
| PCISA Gold Pacific Coast Champs | Crew | B | 5 | 12.2 | — |
| PCISA #5 Gaucho Regatta - GOLD | Skipper | B | 5 | 23.2 | -0.21 |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl - Gold | Skipper | B | 4 | 20.5 | 0.25 |
| Anteater Regatta - Gold Fleet | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 1.78 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| PCISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| PCISA Gold Pacific Coast Champs | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.7 | 0.67 |
| PCISA #5 Gaucho Silver Fleet | Skipper | B | 3 | 12.3 | 0.32 |
| PCISA #4 Golden Bear Silver Fleet | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.4 | 1.41 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Connor Chung |  Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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