| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Sage Hill School | Lightning | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,667 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.439 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.54: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School Pointers | 1 | 8.19 | Jack Mcgraw / Katharine Bowman 2.81 Steven Leuck / Megan Lansdale Jack Reiter / Kenny Moats | 74% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School Sailors | 2 | 7.76 school −0.27 | Michael Sabourin / Madeline Bubb Joseph Hou / Emily Overstreet Sean Segerblom / Briggs D'Eliscu 3.25 | 66% | 7–2 (78%) | +1.1 |
| 3 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings Varsity | 3 | 6.59 school −0.36 | Rhodes Garner / Sammy Pickell 2.50 Derek Pickell / Kate Madigan 2.27 Sean Dahl / Laurel Foster 2.06 | 40% | 3–6 (33%) | −0.6 |
| 4 | Sage Hill School Lightning | 4 | 5.66 school −0.30 | Jacob Rosenberg / Madison Nadelman 2.61 Bobby Briggs / Paige Okey 1.68 Connor Chung / Joshua Cheadle 1.54 | 20% | 1–8 (11%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School | 7.76 | 8.65 | 7–2 | 5.9 | +0.89 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 8.19 | 8.44 | 7–2 | 6.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Corona del Mar High School | 6.59 | 6.18 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 4 | Sage Hill School | 5.66 | 4.70 | 1–8 | 1.8 | −0.96 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Pickell | Corona del Mar High School | 2.27 | 1.86 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Sean Dahl | Corona del Mar High School | 2.06 | 1.65 | 3–6 | 3.6 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Bobby Briggs | Sage Hill School | 1.68 | 0.71 | 1–8 | 1.8 | −0.96 | 0.4 | 88% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Point Loma High School | Corona del Mar High School | 74% | |
| 1 | 2 | Newport Harbor High School | Sage Hill School | 81% | |
| 1 | 3 | Sage Hill School | Corona del Mar High School | 33% | upset |
| 1 | 4 | Point Loma High School | Newport Harbor High School | 58% | |
| 1 | 5 | Point Loma High School | Sage Hill School | 87% | |
| 1 | 6 | Newport Harbor High School | Corona del Mar High School | 71% | |
| 2 | 7 | Point Loma High School | Corona del Mar High School | 78% | |
| 2 | 8 | Newport Harbor High School | Sage Hill School | 84% | |
| 2 | 9 | Newport Harbor High School | Point Loma High School | 42% | upset |
| 2 | 10 | Corona del Mar High School | Sage Hill School | 67% | |
| 2 | 11 | Newport Harbor High School | Corona del Mar High School | 72% | |
| 2 | 12 | Point Loma High School | Sage Hill School | 88% | |
| 3 | 13 | Newport Harbor High School | Sage Hill School | 84% | |
| 3 | 14 | Corona del Mar High School | Point Loma High School | 21% | upset |
| 3 | 15 | Corona del Mar High School | Sage Hill School | 67% | |
| 3 | 16 | Point Loma High School | Newport Harbor High School | 59% | |
| 3 | 17 | Newport Harbor High School | Corona del Mar High School | 73% | |
| 3 | 18 | Point Loma High School | Sage Hill School | 89% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Sailors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Lightning | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Pointers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pointers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Pointers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Pointers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lightning | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Jack Mcgraw '16 Jack Reiter '18 Steven Leuck '16 |
Katharine Bowman '16 Kenny Moats '17 Megan Lansdale '16 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Joseph Hou '18 Michael Sabourin '16 Sean Segerblom '16 |
Emily Overstreet '17 Madeline Bubb '16 Briggs D'Eliscu '16 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings Varsity | Derek Pickell '16 Rhodes Garner '16 Sean Dahl '17 |
Kate Madigan '16 Sammy Pickell '18 Laurel Foster '18 |
|
Sage Hill School | Lightning | Bobby Briggs '16 Connor Chung '16 Jacob Rosenberg '16 |
Paige Okey '17 Joshua Cheadle '19 Madison Nadelman '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
