Massachusetts Institute of Technology '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.91 (fleet 2.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–19 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 14–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 19–19 against 13.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.34 | 2.54 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.21 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.18 | 3.30 | 14–6 | 10.3 | +1.12 | 3.0 | 4% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.03 | 2.71 | 4–8 | 2.6 | +0.69 | 0.7 | 25% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 5.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 3.42 |
| NEISA Match Race Championships Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 2.15 |
| 35th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.5 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.2 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 6.8 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 3.00 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.1 | 2.51 |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.0 | 2.84 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 12.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Connor Chung |  Sage Hill School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
