| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Point Loma High School | Pointers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Coronado | Nado | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Parker | Parker | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
The Bishop's School | Knights | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Miramonte High School | Matadors | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,294 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 52 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.390 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.51 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Loma High School | 8.48 | 11.48 | 16–0 | 11.8 | ≥+3.00 | 6.6 | 1% |
| 3 | Coronado | 6.83 | 7.52 | 9–7 | 7.3 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 24% |
| 6 | The Bishop's School | 4.19 | 4.23 | 2–10 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | Parker | 7.71 | 7.48 | 9–7 | 9.5 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2 | Newport Harbor High School | 8.07 | 7.77 | 10–6 | 10.7 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 5 | Corona del Mar High School | 7.62 | 6.14 | 6–10 | 9.3 | −1.48 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 7 | Miramonte High School | 3.77 | 0.77 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Powell | Coronado | 1.21 | 4.21 | 4–0 | 3.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 52% |
| Pj Eaton | Coronado | 2.44 | 3.12 | 9–7 | 7.3 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 24% |
| Crew Fristch | Coronado | 1.91 | 2.42 | 5–7 | 3.9 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 34% |
| Amanda Majernik | The Bishop's School | 1.59 | 1.63 | 2–10 | 2.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Andrew Person | Newport Harbor High School | 2.29 | 1.99 | 10–6 | 10.7 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 76% |
| Wills Cook | Newport Harbor High School | 2.26 | 1.89 | 8–6 | 8.8 | −0.37 | 0.2 | 79% |
| Sean Dahl | Corona del Mar High School | 2.42 | 0.95 | 6–10 | 9.3 | −1.48 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Thomas Erisman | Miramonte High School | 1.17 | -1.83 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Parker | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Sailors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Nado | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Parker | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Nado | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Matadors | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Parker | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Nado | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Parker | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Nado | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailors | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Nado | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Parker | 1-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Pointers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Sailors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Nado | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Parker | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Sailors | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Nado | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Matadors | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Parker | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Knights | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Nado | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Knights | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Sailors | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Matadors | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Pointers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 2-3-6 |
| 34 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Knights | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Nado | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Matadors | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Sea Kings | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Knights | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Parker | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Nado | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Matadors | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Knights | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Nado | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Parker | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Matadors | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Pointers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nado | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Pointers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 1-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Nado | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Parker | 1-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sailors | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Nado | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Pointers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Parker | 3-4-6 |
| 50 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Sailors | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nado | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Parker | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Sea Kings | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Point Loma High School | Pointers | Diego Escobar '20 Jack Egan '20 Jack Reiter '18 |
Emma Batcher '18 Kenny Moats '17 Remy Reynolds '17 |
|
Newport Harbor High School | Sailors | Andrew Person '17 Joseph Hou '18 Scott Mais '19 Wills Cook '19 |
Katie Mcallister '17 Emily Overstreet '17 Grace Vandervort '17 Marley Mais '17 |
|
Coronado | Nado | Brock Paquin '18 Crew Fristch '19 Pj Eaton '17 Stewart Powell '17 |
Tanner Chapko '17 Trey Summers '20 Tristan Richmond '18 |
|
Parker | Parker | Cole Harris '18 Jack Joslin '18 Samuel Merson '18 |
Annabelle Huyard '20 Reese Ger-Herscott '20 Madeleine Mcgrath '18 |
|
Corona del Mar High School | Sea Kings | Max Mayol '19 Porter Killian '18 Sean Dahl '17 |
Catherine Webb '18 Sammy Pickell '18 Laurel Foster '18 |
|
The Bishop's School | Knights | Amanda Majernik '18 John Majernik '20 Rocco Cappetta '20 |
Lizzie Russell '17 Claire Lester '19 George Scheibler '20 |
|
Miramonte High School | Matadors | Daniel Erisman '19 Thomas Erisman '19 Will Foox '20 |
Devon Kurisu '19 Kai Otsmaa '17 Ian Churchill '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
