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Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 15–0
2 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 11–4
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 10–5
4 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 4–11
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3–9
6 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3–9
7 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,407 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 48 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.327 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.23 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 69% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		111.50
school +0.48		Jacob Rosenberg / Kathryn Booker 3.53
Jack Parkin / Taylor Kirkpatrick 3.74
Romain Screve / Sammy Pickell 3.78 13–0
Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo / Meg Gerli 3.41 2–0		94%15–0 (100%)+0.9
2California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		38.90
school +0.15		Johannes Mcelvain / Hailey Thompson 3.21
Benjamin Rohr / Emi Stephanoff 2.66
Brock Paquin / Matthew Thomas 2.84		54%11–4 (73%)+2.9
3University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		210.05
home +0.39		David Eastwood / Claire Hunt 3.16
Lucas Pierce / Samantha Obel 3.29
Quinn Wilson / Elizabeth Moody 3.15		74%10–5 (67%)−1.1
4University of Hawaii
Rainbows		48.19
school +0.12		Mathew Butler / Annika Garrett 2.38
Michael Pacholski / Devon Stapleton 2.70
Patrick Wilkinson / Danielle Ahir 2.93 3–10
Patrick Wilkinson / Sophie Deming 2.82 1–1		40%4–11 (27%)−2.0
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.
Mustangs		57.46
school +0.40		Ben Brough / Shea Walker 2.55
Alyson Crowley / Helen Payne 2.17
Liam Hood / Peyton Nienaber 2.32		32%3–9 (25%)−0.8
6University of California at Berkeley
Bears		76.48
school −0.23		Ciara Dorsay / Megan Grosspietsch 2.09
Elizabeth Hansen / Mackenzie Berwick 2.17
Drake Hayes / Paris Sato 2.42		15%3–9 (25%)+1.2
7University of Southern California
Trojans		67.20
school −0.56		Sarah Alexander / Sabrina Moreno 2.45
Nicholas Stefanoni / Kai Otsmaa 2.86
Will Paulsen / Lauren Lopez 2.40		27%2–10 (17%)−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University11.5014.5015–014.1≥+3.001.437%
2California Maritime Academy8.9010.4211–48.1+1.523.14%
6University of California at Berkeley6.487.273–91.7+0.790.824%
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.7.466.983–93.8−0.480.384%
3University of California at Santa Barbara10.059.4410–511.1−0.610.590%
7University of Southern California7.206.422–103.2−0.780.791%
4University of Hawaii8.197.284–116.0−0.911.395%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Benjamin RohrCalifornia Maritime Academy2.664.1811–48.1+1.523.14%
Elizabeth HansenUniversity of California at Berkeley2.172.963–91.7+0.790.824%
Ben BroughCal Poly University S.L.O.2.552.073–93.8−0.480.384%
Alyson CrowleyCal Poly University S.L.O.2.171.693–93.8−0.480.384%
Quinn WilsonUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.152.5410–511.1−0.610.590%
Mathew ButlerUniversity of Hawaii2.381.474–116.0−0.911.395%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Hawaii68%
12University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California95%
13Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.98%
14University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Berkeley85%
15University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy76%
16Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California99%
17Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of California at Berkeley73%
18University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii87%
19Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy93%
110University of Southern CaliforniaCal Poly University S.L.O.43%upset
111University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley97%
112Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii97%
113California Maritime AcademyCal Poly University S.L.O.81%
114University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of Southern California33%upset
115Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara82%
116Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Hawaii35%upset
117California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California85%
118Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley99%
119University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.93%
120University of HawaiiUniversity of Southern California73%
121California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley92%
222California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Hawaii67%
223University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California94%
224Stanford UniversityCal Poly University S.L.O.98%
225University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of Hawaii15%upset
226California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Santa Barbara24%upset
227Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California99%
228University of California at BerkeleyCal Poly University S.L.O.28%upset
229University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii86%
230Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy93%
231Cal Poly University S.L.O.University of Southern California56%
232University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Berkeley97%
233Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii97%
234California Maritime AcademyCal Poly University S.L.O.81%
235University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of California at Berkeley67%
236Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara82%
237University of HawaiiCal Poly University S.L.O.66%
238California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California84%
239Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Berkeley99%
240University of California at Santa BarbaraCal Poly University S.L.O.93%
241University of HawaiiUniversity of Southern California73%
242California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Berkeley92%
443California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Santa Barbara24%upset
444Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii96%
445University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii86%
446Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy93%
447California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Hawaii66%
448Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara81%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalKeelhaulersGauchosRainbowsMustangsBearsTrojans
Stanford University Cardinal6–0✕WWWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4–2L✕LWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos5–1LW✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–4LLL✕LWW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs2–4LLLW✕WL
University of California at Berkeley Bears1–5LLLLL✕W
University of Southern California Trojans1–5LLLLWL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CardinalKeelhaulersGauchosRainbowsMustangsBearsTrojans
Stanford University Cardinal6–0✕WWWWWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers5–1L✕WWWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos4–2LL✕WWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows2–4LLL✕WLW
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1–5LLLL✕LW
University of California at Berkeley Bears2–4LLLWW✕L
University of Southern California Trojans1–5LLLLLW✕

Round 4

TeamRec.CardinalKeelhaulersGauchosRainbows
Stanford University Cardinal3–0✕WWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2–1L✕WW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1–2LL✕W
University of Hawaii Rainbows0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
2 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
3 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
4 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-5-6
5 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
6 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
7 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-5 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-6
8 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
9 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
10 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-5-6
11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-4-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-6
13 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
14 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
16 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-6
17 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
19 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-4-5 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2-3-6
20 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-5-6
21 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-6 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 3-4-5
22 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-4-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-6
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 2-4-6
24 Stanford University Cardinal 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
25 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-5-6
26 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
27 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
28 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
29 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
30 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
31 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
32 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
33 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
34 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1-5-6
35 University of Southern California Trojans 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
36 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
37 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-6 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3-4-5
38 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
39 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 4-5-6
40 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4-5-6
41 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 2-4-6
42 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Berkeley Bears 1-5-6
43 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-3-4 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-5-6
44 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
45 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-4-6
46 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
47 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-3 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 4-5-6
48 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-6 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-5

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1018.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1018.5 hPa

What this breeze does at UC Santa Barbara — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at UC Santa Barbara in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled fleet-race days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →