University of Hawaii '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.07 (fleet 2.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–17 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 14–17 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 14–17 against 12.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-06 | Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.38 | 1.47 | 4–11 | 6.0 | −0.91 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2019-02-23 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.00 | 3.32 | 10–6 | 7.0 | +1.32 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.3 | 3.23 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| PCCSC Coed Dinghy Conference Championships | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 4.24 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 2 | 14.5 | 2.18 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 2 | 11.0 | 1.13 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.3 | 2.00 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 2.59 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Reserve | A | 9 | 5.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
