Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup

HostCal Maritime
Date03/09/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatCatalina 37
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	33	33
2	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	39	39
3	University of South Florida	Bulls	41	41
4	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	44	44
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	50	50
6	Ireland	Ireland	61	61
7	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	62	62
8	University of Southern California	Trojans	68	68
9	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	69	69
10	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	84	84

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	5	2	2	1	1	4	1	6	2	9	33
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	2	3	1	5	2	7	7	7	4	1	39
University of South Florida	Bulls	7	1	7	2	9	3	5	1	3	3	41
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	4	4	6	7	3	1	4	3	7	5	44
College of Charleston	Cougars	3	8	8	4	7	2	9	4	1	4	50
Ireland	Ireland	1	6	3	3	8	8	8	8	6	10	61
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	6	9	4	8	4	9	3	5	8	6	62
University of Southern California	Trojans	DSQ	5	5	9	5	5	10	2	9	7	68
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	9	10	10	6	10	6	2	9	5	2	69
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	8	7	9	10	6	10	6	10	10	8	84

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperJohannes McElvain '18 [1-9] CrewBenjamin Rohr '19 [1-9] CrewNolan Van Dine '20 [1-9] CrewHarry Schmidt '20 [1-9] CrewFlora Van Der Schoot '20 [1-9] CrewDrake Jensen '18 [1-9] CrewEmi Stephanoff '21 [1-9] ReserveRyan Schack '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	SkipperJordan Wiggins '20 [1-9] CrewWilliam Hundahl '19 [1-9] CrewGraham Post '21 [1-9] CrewWill Comerford '21 [1-9] CrewEmily Essi '21 [1-9] CrewSam Tobio '20 [1-9] CrewSarah Wilkinson '19 [1-9]
Ireland	Ireland	SkipperRichie Harrington '18 CrewEwan O'Keeffe '19 CrewRob Scandrett '18 CrewGrattan Roberts '20 CrewDylan O'Rourke '19 CrewAnna Carthy '20 CrewAine O'Driscoll '19 ReserveMark Murphy '21 Scott O'Sullivan '21
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperJay Trentham '21 CrewGraham Roeber '19 CrewRennaisance Lyman '21 CrewGeoffrey Knight '20 CrewCorinne Poitras '20 CrewIsaac Parker '18 CrewBradford Tibbetts '20 ReserveCole Cleveland '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperFrank Reeg '19 [1-9] CrewBogdan Shcherbyna '19 [1-9] CrewMatthew Schaefer '19 [1-9] CrewEvan Bowen '19 [1-9] CrewAlexander Bowen '20 [1-9] CrewChristopher Dawson '18 [1-9] CrewColin English '21 [1-9] ReserveMcKenna Jarvis '19 ReserveMegan Laurie '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperTheodore Papenthien '18 [1-9] CrewCassidy O'Brien '19 [1-9] CrewPatrick Francis '18 [1-9] CrewGunnar Hough '18 [1-9] CrewK. Parriott '18 [1-9] CrewChristopher Cantillo '18 [1-9] CrewEdward Decker '18 [1-9] ReserveMatthew Hundt '18
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	SkipperChristopher Weis '18 [1-9] CrewSterling Henken '18 [1-9] CrewSarah Scoffone '19 [1-9] CrewNeil Stapleton '18 [1-9] CrewRory McClish '18 [1-9] CrewDylan Finestone '19 [1-9] CrewClaire Hunt '19 [1-9] ReserveCameron Baxter '19
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	SkipperMichael Pacholski '19 [1-9] CrewAnnika Garrett '19 [1-9] CrewMathew Butler '19 [1-9] CrewDylan Meade '20 [1-9] CrewCuylar Zimmerman '19 [1-9] CrewJeremy Hitchcock '17 [1-9] CrewCaitlin Schadt '18 [1-9] ReservePatrick Wilkinson '20
University of South Florida	Bulls	SkipperSean Cornell '18 [1-3] CrewCameron Smith '19 [1-3] CrewMichael Sanandajian '18 [1-3] CrewOrrin Starr '19 [1-3] CrewMandi Dickie '18 [1-3] CrewBrendan Feeney '18 [1-3] CrewRachel Daye '18 [1-3] ReservePreston Senior '19
University of Southern California	Trojans	SkipperPaul Chyz '18 [1-9] CrewMackenzie Freeman '18 [1-9] CrewSarah Alexander '19 [1-9] CrewMelissa Schem '18 [1-9] CrewPeter Wong '18 [1-9] CrewNicholas Stefanoni '21 [1-9] CrewWill Paulsen '19 [1-9] ReserveWilliam Dana '20 ReserveSpencer Paulsen '21

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 10 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Theodore Papenthien '18	U. S. Naval Academy	10/10	1.67^u	2.61	+0.94	94th → 99th	3.5	7%	3.3 / 5.6
2	Christopher Weis '18	University of California at Santa Barbara	10/10	2.22	2.44	+0.22	99th → 99th	0.2	34%	3.9 / 4.6
3	Sean Cornell '18	University of South Florida	10/10	1.98	2.30	+0.32	99th → 99th	0.5	29%	4.1 / 5.1
4	Johannes McElvain '18	California Maritime Academy	10/10	2.08	2.36	+0.29	99th → 99th	0.4	42%	4.4 / 4.8
5	Jordan Wiggins '20	College of Charleston	10/10	1.83^u	2.03	+0.20	97th → 99th	0.2	42%	5.0 / 5.4
6	Richie Harrington '18	Ireland	10/10	0.72^u	1.64	+0.92	60th → 93rd	3.6	21%	6.1 / 7.2
7	Frank Reeg '19	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	10/10	1.69	1.65	−0.05	94th → 93rd	0.0	68%	6.2 / 5.5
8	Paul Chyz '18	University of Southern California	10/10	2.00	1.39	−0.61	99th → 88th	1.9	90%	6.8 / 5.0
9	Michael Pacholski '19	University of Hawaii	10/10	1.82	0.74	−1.08	97th → 61st	5.3	85%	6.9 / 5.3
10	Jay Trentham '21	Maine Maritime Academy	10/10	1.14^u	0.64	−0.50	78th → 56th	1.1	92%	8.4 / 6.5

Conditions — 03/09/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

58°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.6 kn

avg · max 11.1 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From SW (234°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1016.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Cal Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cal Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Cal Maritime: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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