University of South Florida '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.17) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–27 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 16–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 16–25 against 17.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Lynne Marchiando Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.62 | 1.91 | 3–12 | 4.8 | −0.71 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2018-03-03 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 2.11 | 6–13 | 7.8 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 5.51 | 7–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.8 | 6% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Michael Sanandajian |  Jensen Beach High School |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
