Gill Coed Western Semifinal

HostCharleston
Date05/30/2017
TypeNational Championship Semifina
BoatZ420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	64	51	115
2	Tufts University	Jumbos	52	83	135
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	72	63	135
4	Boston College	Eagles	55	82	137
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	76	65	141
6	Brown University	Bears	71	75	146
7	Georgetown University	Hoyas	73	74	147
8	University of South Florida	Bulls	100	69	169
9	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	100	81	181
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	95	106	201
11	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	109	101	210
12	Eckerd College	Tritons	114	103	217
13	University of Miami	Hurricanes	110	129	239
14	Northwestern University	Wildcats	148	142	290
15	Santa Barbara City College	Vaqueros	154	146	300
16	University of Michigan	Wolverines	140	162	302
17	Texas A&M University	Aggies	158	191	349
18	University of Washington	Huskies	190	160	350

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos	1	5	4	8	1	10	2	2	1	11	7	52	John Rolander '17 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Boston College	Eagles	4	4	6	4	10	2	5	1	12	2	5	55	Erika Reineke '17 [1-11] Allison Ferraris '17 [1-6] Alice Bohan '18 [7-10] Tara Ferraris '19 [11]
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	2	14	3	2	3	5	13	4	9	8	1	64	Patrick Snow '17 Mary Morocco '19
Brown University	Bears	6	1	8	17	4	8	1	8	7	5	6	71	Patrick Shanahan '19 Emily Ito '19
Yale University	Bulldogs	8	3	1	15	5	3	14	7	5	1	10	72	Ian Barrows '17 [1-10] Nicolas Hernandez '19 [11] Clara Robertson '17 [1-10] Kira Woods '19 [11]
Georgetown University	Hoyas	16	6	11	6	7	1	6	10	2	6	2	73	Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Meaghan Macrae '18
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3	8	15	1	6	4	4	15	8	4	8	76	Nikole Barnes '17 Anna Morin '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12	13	13	9	9	7	10	3	4	3	12	95	Jonathan Lutz '17 Shelby Jacobs '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	10	2	16	5	14	6	7	9	3	12	16	100	Kristopher Swanson '18 Neil Stapleton '18
University of South Florida	Bulls	17	11	10	10	8	12	3	5	10	10	4	100	Sean Cornell '18 Kristen Walker '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5	9	12	7	16	9	15	6	6	9	15	109	Jeremy Herrin '18 Carter Little '18
University of Miami	Hurricanes	14	7	5	14	2	14	11	14	13	13	3	110	Max Thompson '19 Kaitlyn Delisser '20
Eckerd College	Tritons	15	10	14	3	12	13	8	12	11	7	9	114	Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 [1-6] Andrew Schoene '18 [7-11] Caroline Puckette '20 [1-6] Kim Kusminsky '19 [7-11]
University of Michigan	Wolverines	7	15	9	13	11	17	12	16	15	14	11	140	Mason Wolters '18 Michael Gapuz '18
Northwestern University	Wildcats	11	18	2	12	17	11	18	13	16	16	14	148	Mark Davies '20 [1-6, 11] Ryder Easterlin '20 [7-10] Michael Pauleen '18 [1-6, 11] Audrey Debruine '19 [7-10]
Santa Barbara City College	Vaqueros	13	16	18	11	15	15	9	11	14	15	17	154	Silas Barton '18 Theodore Bascom '20
Texas A&M University	Aggies	9	12	7	18	13	18	16	18	17	17	13	158	Julian Martin '20 [1-11] Walter Pospick '17 [1-4, 7-8] Carson Pepper '17 [5-6, 9-11]
University of Washington	Huskies	18	17	17	16	18	16	17	17	18	18	18	190	Connor Hughes '19 [1-4, 7-11] Hayden Potter '20 [5-6] Audrey Jacobs '18 [1-4, 7-11]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	2	1	1	8	1	7	11	2	1	4	13	51	Gary Prieto '18 [1-10] Hannah Hughes '17 [11] Ana Mier '19 [1-10] Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [11]
Yale University	Bulldogs	8	6	3	1	3	1	9	10	12	9	1	63	Joseph Kiss '17 [1-2, 9-11] Nicholas Baird '19 [3-8] Graceann Nicolosi '20 [1-8] Caroline Colwell '18 [9-10] Chandler Gregoire '17 [11]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	1	4	8	7	9	9	5	5	6	5	6	65	Dana Rohde '18 Maddie Ekin '20
University of South Florida	Bulls	13	2	6	2	7	2	1	1	2	14	DSQ	69	Andrew Baird '18 [1-10] Michael Sanandajian '18 [11] Darby Capellin '19 [1-10] Katie Berg '17 [11]
Georgetown University	Hoyas	4	5	2	12	2	5	4	18	10	1	11	74	Sean Segerblom '20 [1-10] Aj Reiter '17 [11] Rebecca Fung '19 [1-10]
Brown University	Bears	3	7	4	13	4	4	12	6	11	6	5	75	Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 Haley Carter '17
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	10	13	7	5	6	13	13	3	5	2	4	81	Stephen Long '17 Kristina Miller '17
Boston College	Eagles	9	9	10	16	5	10	2	7	8	3	3	82	Harry Koeppel '17 [1-4] Charles Sinks '18 [5-10] Wade Waddell '19 [11] Hannah Lynn '17 [1-4] Allison Ferraris '17 [5-10] Emma Perry '19 [11]
Tufts University	Jumbos	6	11	9	4	15	6	6	4	4	11	7	83	Scott Barbano '17 [1-10] Alexander Tong '17 [11] Ian Morgan '19 [1-10] Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 [11]
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5	12	5	3	DSQ	3	8	9	7	16	14	101	Jack Elkin '19 Gabriel Smith '17
Eckerd College	Tritons	12	10	12	9	11	8	3	11	9	8	10	103	Jason D'Agostino '17 Sabine Zinserling '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	16	8	15	6	8	11	14	16	3	7	2	106	Bradley Adam '17 [1-4] Carolyn Smith '17 [5-8] Patrick Tara '17 [9-11] Hannah Chapman '17 [1-4] Julia Monro '17 [5-8] Elizabeth Dennison '17 [9-11]
University of Miami	Hurricanes	14	14	11	10	10	15	7	13	14	12	9	129	Kyle Magno '18 [1-11] Olivia Gassner '18 [1-10] Geoffrey Calderone '18 [11]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	11	16	13	15	16	12	16	8	13	10	12	142	Jacob Bruce '16 [1-4, 11] Noah Rosenthal '18 [5-10] Susan Riley '17 [1-4, 11] Zachary Herron '18 [5-10]
Santa Barbara City College	Vaqueros	7	3	17	14	14	17	17	15	16	18	8	146	Soren Wilde '19 Cameron Gibson '19
University of Washington	Huskies	15	18	14	11	12	16	15	12	17	15	15	160	Nathaniel Gordon '20 [1-11] Cassidy Lynch '17 [1-8, 11] Erik Skeel '20 [9-10]
University of Michigan	Wolverines	18	15	16	17	13	14	10	14	15	13	17	162	Colton Gerber '18 [1-11] Sofia Gambini '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11] Sidney Thompson '18 [3-6, 9-10]
Texas A&M University	Aggies	17	17	18	18	17	18	18	17	18	17	16	191	Benjamin Lipari '18 Catherine Bristow '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Boston College Eagles	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Brown University Bears	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Eckerd College Tritons	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Georgetown University Hoyas	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14	14	12
University of Miami Hurricanes	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4
University of Michigan Wolverines	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2
Northwestern University Wildcats	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16	16	14
Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
University of South Florida Bulls	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18	18	16
Texas A&M University Aggies	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Tufts University Jumbos	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	18
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
University of Washington Huskies	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Yale University Bulldogs	18	18	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Boston College Eagles	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Brown University Bears	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Eckerd College Tritons	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Georgetown University Hoyas	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13	13	11
University of Miami Hurricanes	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3
University of Michigan Wolverines	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1
Northwestern University Wildcats	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15	15	13
Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
University of South Florida Bulls	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17	17	15
Texas A&M University Aggies	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Tufts University Jumbos	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	17
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
University of Washington Huskies	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Yale University Bulldogs	17	17	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Erika Reineke '17 [1-11]	Allison Ferraris '17 [1-6] Alice Bohan '18 [7-10] Tara Ferraris '19 [11]
Eagles	Harry Koeppel '17 [1-4] Charles Sinks '18 [5-10] Wade Waddell '19 [11]	Hannah Lynn '17 [1-4] Allison Ferraris '17 [5-10] Emma Perry '19 [11]
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	Emily Ito '19
Bears	Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17	Haley Carter '17
Eckerd College	Karl Rasmus Sayre '19 [1-6] Andrew Schoene '18 [7-11]	Caroline Puckette '20 [1-6] Kim Kusminsky '19 [7-11]
Tritons	Jason D'Agostino '17	Sabine Zinserling '20
Georgetown University	Campbell D'Eliscu '19	Meaghan Macrae '18
Hoyas	Sean Segerblom '20 [1-10] Aj Reiter '17 [11]	Rebecca Fung '19 [1-10]
Northwestern University	Mark Davies '20 [1-6, 11] Ryder Easterlin '20 [7-10]	Michael Pauleen '18 [1-6, 11] Audrey Debruine '19 [7-10]
Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 [1-4, 11] Noah Rosenthal '18 [5-10]	Susan Riley '17 [1-4, 11] Zachary Herron '18 [5-10]
Old Dominion University	Jeremy Herrin '18	Carter Little '18
Monarchs	Jack Elkin '19	Gabriel Smith '17
Santa Barbara City College	Silas Barton '18	Theodore Bascom '20
Vaqueros	Soren Wilde '19	Cameron Gibson '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Jonathan Lutz '17	Shelby Jacobs '17
Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 [1-4] Carolyn Smith '17 [5-8] Patrick Tara '17 [9-11]	Hannah Chapman '17 [1-4] Julia Monro '17 [5-8] Elizabeth Dennison '17 [9-11]
Texas A&M University	Julian Martin '20 [1-11]	Walter Pospick '17 [1-4, 7-8] Carson Pepper '17 [5-6, 9-11]
Aggies	Benjamin Lipari '18	Catherine Bristow '17
Tufts University	John Rolander '17	Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Jumbos	Scott Barbano '17 [1-10] Alexander Tong '17 [11]	Ian Morgan '19 [1-10] Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19 [11]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Nikole Barnes '17	Anna Morin '19
Bears	Dana Rohde '18	Maddie Ekin '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Patrick Snow '17	Mary Morocco '19
Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 [1-10] Hannah Hughes '17 [11]	Ana Mier '19 [1-10] Manuel Inserni Pagan '17 [11]
University of California at Santa Barbara	Kristopher Swanson '18	Neil Stapleton '18
Gauchos	Stephen Long '17	Kristina Miller '17
University of Miami	Max Thompson '19	Kaitlyn Delisser '20
Hurricanes	Kyle Magno '18 [1-11]	Olivia Gassner '18 [1-10] Geoffrey Calderone '18 [11]
University of Michigan	Mason Wolters '18	Michael Gapuz '18
Wolverines	Colton Gerber '18 [1-11]	Sofia Gambini '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11] Sidney Thompson '18 [3-6, 9-10]
University of South Florida	Sean Cornell '18	Kristen Walker '17
Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 [1-10] Michael Sanandajian '18 [11]	Darby Capellin '19 [1-10] Katie Berg '17 [11]
University of Washington	Connor Hughes '19 [1-4, 7-11] Hayden Potter '20 [5-6]	Audrey Jacobs '18 [1-4, 7-11]
Huskies	Nathaniel Gordon '20 [1-11]	Cassidy Lynch '17 [1-8, 11] Erik Skeel '20 [9-10]
Yale University	Ian Barrows '17 [1-10] Nicolas Hernandez '19 [11]	Clara Robertson '17 [1-10] Kira Woods '19 [11]
Bulldogs	Joseph Kiss '17 [1-2, 9-11] Nicholas Baird '19 [3-8]	Graceann Nicolosi '20 [1-8] Caroline Colwell '18 [9-10] Chandler Gregoire '17 [11]

Conditions — 05/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

84°F

↑ 90°F ↓ 76°F

Feels like 91°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 7.0 kn

Gusts to 23.3 kn

From WNW (293°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover70% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1018.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Charleston: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.17 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.20

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.21 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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