Northwestern University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35 (fleet 1.86) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 47–57 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 15–15 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 16–19 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 11–13 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (104 matches) the record is 47–57 against 50.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 7 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.85 | 0.83 | 2–3 | 3.0 | −1.02 | 0.7 | 94% |
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.73 | 1.29 | 8–5 | 8.8 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2018-02-24 | 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.79 | 1.35 | 5–7 | 5.8 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.92 | 1.69 | 1–7 | 1.1 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 86% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.88 | 4.88 | 10–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.4 | 8% |
| 2017-02-25 | 2017 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 1.07 | 5–12 | 7.3 | −0.82 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.88 | 0.88 | 1–8 | 1.9 | −1.00 | 0.6 | 93% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.82 | 2.41 | 3–3 | 2.4 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.96 | 2.52 | 8–2 | 7.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 70% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.79 | -1.21 | 0–8 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.55 | 2.83 | 4–2 | 3.3 | +1.28 | 0.7 | 37% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Crew | A | 7 | 5.7 | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.2 | 1.89 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.0 | 0.23 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | B | 4 | 10.0 | 1.23 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| 2018 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.9 | 1.81 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 16.3 | 1.34 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.0 | 0.39 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.5 | 2.57 |
| 2017 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.0 | 2.02 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.4 | 1.16 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.6 | 2.95 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.8 | 2.48 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 1.69 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 1.89 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.4 | 1.42 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Noah Rosenthal |  Evanston Township HS |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
