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Timme Angsten

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 48 13 61
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 36 35 71
3 Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 19 70 89
4 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 67 35 102
5 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 67 64 131
6 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 49 98 MRP 147 MRP
7 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 100 74 174
8 University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 83 123 206
9 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 107 114 221
10 Buckeyes Buckeyes Buckeyes 124 MRP 130 MRP 254 MRP
11 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 137 GDQ 118 GDQ 255 GDQ
12 Bears Bears Bears 163 MRP 146 MRP 309 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 1 19 Alexander O'Grady '17
Max Spehlmann '17
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 2 2 2 3 1 3 2 8 5 1 3 36 Korbin Kierstead '19 [1-12]
Olivia Staruck '20 [1-8, 11-12]
Hayden Frentzel '20 [9-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 3 4 3 6 4 9 4 3 4 2 4 48 Noah Rosenthal '18 [1-12]
Samantha Harney '18 [1-6]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [7-12]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 5 4 7 4 7 3 5 3 1 1 7 2 49 Colton Gerber '18
Amy Baer '19
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 3 5 5 8 1 5 1 6 5 9 10 9 67 Ryan Clulo '18 [1-12]
Grant Younger '18 [1-4]
Catherine Strietmann '18 [5-8, 11-12]
Connor Skelton '19 [9-10]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 8 6 3 5 4 8 4 7 6 3 5 8 67 Andre Deriaz '18
Brittni Begale '16
University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 6 7 6 9 12 6 7 9 4 8 4 5 83 Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20
Steven Macenski '17
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 7 8 11 10 10 7 6 5 7 7 11 11 100 Michael Valverde '18 [1-12]
Ryan Sigurdson '18 [1-2, 9-12]
Maya Smith '19 [3-8]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 10 10 10 7 5 11 11 11 10 10 6 6 107 Stephane Vinet '19 [1-12]
Caitlin Sheehan '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Vera Beilinson '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Buckeyes Buckeyes Buckeyes 11 9 8 6 9 9 8 10 DSQ 6 8 7 124 MRP
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 9 11 9 RAF 8 10 10 8 9 11 9 10 137 GDQ Austin Lee '17
Mckenzie Frame '20
Bears Bears Bears 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 DNS DNS 163 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 13 Mark Davies '20 [1-12]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [1-6]
Samantha Harney '18 [7-12]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2 2 4 2 3 6 2 3 2 3 4 2 35 Jack Behrend '20
Susie Voltz '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 3 2 4 2 4 3 1 5 2 2 4 35 Zachary Miller '20 [1-12]
Emily Anaya '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Jonathan Thickens '19 [9-10]
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 4 3 3 7 7 4 4 7 DSQ 5 3 64 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Bobby Sessions '20 [3-6, 9-10]
Bobby Sessions '20 [1-2, 11-12]
Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Timothy Lemoine '18 [5-6]
Marshall Newman '20 [7-8]
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Foresters 6 7 5 5 10 3 5 6 4 4 7 8 70 Charles Koules '17 [1-12]
Vivianna Sophia Lane '19 [1-4]
Kaloyan Parvanov '20 [5-10]
Richard Joseph Biggio-Gottschlich '19 [11-12]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 5 6 6 7 6 5 6 5 9 5 8 6 74 Michael Adkins '17 [1-12]
Bailey Adkins '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hannah Morris '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 7 5 8 6 5 9 8 7 3 9 6 5 98 MRP Nathan Kane '19
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 11 11 12 8 12 7 8 12 11 3 11 114 Kyra Martin '18 [1-12]
Wilson Ricks '18 [1-6]
Kevin Zen '17 [7-12]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 11 10 7 8 4 2 10 10 11 8 10 7 118 GDQ Drake Hullinger '17
April Bonkowski '18
University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 10 12 10 9 12 11 9 11 10 10 9 10 123 Lois Holman '17
Audrey Debruine '19
Buckeyes Buckeyes Buckeyes 9 8 9 11 11 10 11 9 6 6 11 9 130 MRP
Bears Bears Bears 12 9 DNS 10 9 8 12 12 8 7 DNS DNS 146 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons55779911111133
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Fighting Illini6644221212101088
Lake Forest CollegeLake Forest College Foresters11335577991111
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles2212121010886644
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines77991111113355
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers8866442212121010
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats33557799111111
BuckeyesBuckeyes Buckeyes4422121210108866
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1010886644221212
BearsBears Bears11111133557799
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1212101088664422
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers99111111335577

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons6688101012122244
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Fighting Illini55331111119977
Lake Forest CollegeLake Forest College Foresters2244668810101212
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles11111199775533
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines8810101212224466
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers77553311111199
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats4466881010121222
BuckeyesBuckeyes Buckeyes33111111997755
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers99775533111111
BearsBears Bears1212224466881010
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos11119977553311
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1010121222446688
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lake Forest College Lake Forest College Alexander O'Grady '17 Max Spehlmann '17
Foresters Charles Koules '17 [1-12] Vivianna Sophia Lane '19 [1-4]
Kaloyan Parvanov '20 [5-10]
Richard Joseph Biggio-Gottschlich '19 [11-12]
Marquette University Marquette University Ryan Clulo '18 [1-12] Grant Younger '18 [1-4]
Catherine Strietmann '18 [5-8, 11-12]
Connor Skelton '19 [9-10]
Golden Eagles Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Bobby Sessions '20 [3-6, 9-10]		 Bobby Sessions '20 [1-2, 11-12]
Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Timothy Lemoine '18 [5-6]
Marshall Newman '20 [7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Noah Rosenthal '18 [1-12] Samantha Harney '18 [1-6]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [7-12]
Wildcats Mark Davies '20 [1-12] Katherine O'Donnell '19 [1-6]
Samantha Harney '18 [7-12]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Stephane Vinet '19 [1-12] Caitlin Sheehan '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Vera Beilinson '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Maroons Kyra Martin '18 [1-12] Wilson Ricks '18 [1-6]
Kevin Zen '17 [7-12]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20 Steven Macenski '17
Fighting Illini Lois Holman '17 Audrey Debruine '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Colton Gerber '18 Amy Baer '19
Wolverines Nathan Kane '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Michael Valverde '18 [1-12] Ryan Sigurdson '18 [1-2, 9-12]
Maya Smith '19 [3-8]
Gophers Michael Adkins '17 [1-12] Bailey Adkins '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hannah Morris '18 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Korbin Kierstead '19 [1-12] Olivia Staruck '20 [1-8, 11-12]
Hayden Frentzel '20 [9-10]
Badgers Zachary Miller '20 [1-12] Emily Anaya '18 [1-8, 11-12]
Jonathan Thickens '19 [9-10]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Andre Deriaz '18 Brittni Begale '16
Panthers Jack Behrend '20 Susie Voltz '19
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Austin Lee '17 Mckenzie Frame '20
Broncos Drake Hullinger '17 April Bonkowski '18

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1021.5 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From ENE (78°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine7.1 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1021.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · SE 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.33 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →