University of Wisconsin '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.18 (fleet -0.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–8 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 4–8 against 3.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-16 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | -0.19 | 0.28 | 4–8 | 3.0 | +0.47 | 0.3 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Lakes Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 2.9 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | C | 9 | 5.7 | -0.20 |
| Laker Showdown | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.8 | -0.87 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Crew | B | 2 | 3.5 | — |
| Sugar Bowl | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
