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Laker Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 27 15 42
2 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 40 45 85
3 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 65 27 92
4 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 23 79 102
5 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 1 50 78 128
6 Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 86 46 132
7 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 60 78 138
8 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 2 75 88 163
9 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 99 65 164
10 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 100 71 171
11 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 64 126 190
12 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 123 102 225
13 Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 118 MRP 112 MRP 230 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 2 5 2 2 2 4 1 1 2 2 23 Elliot Lee '18
Nicholas Smart '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 5 7 5 1 27 Zachary Miller '20
Peter Sauer '20
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 3 1 4 5 10 5 3 2 1 6 40 Rachel Rantanen '19
Christian Mcalvey '18
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 1 4 6 3 4 5 9 4 3 3 9 50 John Lowry '19
Benjamin Riley '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 7 10 6 9 4 6 2 4 4 8 60 Soren Hughes '18
Katharine Madigan '20
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 5 2 13 7 7 1 8 10 6 5 64 Nicholas Irwin '18 [1-10]
Steven Golm '18 [1-5]
Madeline Steger '20 [6-10]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 6 4 9 3 11 7 10 5 7 3 65 Libby Reeg '17
Lisette Boer '19
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 2 8 8 8 6 9 3 9 6 8 10 75 Drew Blackburn '17
Carrington Gelardi '18
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 9 9 11 10 3 8 11 12 9 4 86 Anshul Davda '18
Bogdan Visan '17
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 12 13 5 8 12 12 7 8 10 12 99 Danielle Green '18
Cassandra Trask '20
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 10 7 7 11 8 10 12 9 13 13 100 Joseph Kurta '20 [1-8]
Kate Cavataio '19 [9-10]
Nichole Kievit '19 [1-8]
Jared Smith '20 [9-10]
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 11 12 10 12 6 11 6 11 12 7 118 MRP
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 13 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 123 Pearce Pomerleau '19
Ben Dietderich '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 15 Thomas Kelly '20
Anastasiya May '20
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 3 3 2 3 2 6 2 3 1 2 27 Caroline Ritter '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Dylan Sabo '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Justin Edick '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 1 2 9 12 7 2 3 2 2 5 45 Ryan Geiser '18 [1-10]
Emma Hughes '19 [1-2]
Rebecca Meyer '19 [3-4]
Erin Mattucci '19 [5-6]
Jack Brieton '18 [7-8]
Bradley Grost '19 [9-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Boilermakers 4 4 3 2 5 5 5 6 9 3 46 Mark Hurt '18
Mckenzie White '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 6 8 10 9 3 4 4 9 3 9 65 Maya Smith '19
Holly Mckee '20
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 2 10 6 12 5 8 3 7 10 6 4 71 Matthew Harrison '19 [1-10]
Connor Koryto '20 [1-8]
William Harrison '19 [9-10]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 1 7 7 7 6 11 9 6 11 8 6 78 Delaney Imbler '17
Rebeccca Sadoski '18
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 11 5 6 10 4 10 12 5 4 11 78 Jonathan Thickens '19
Christopher Selzer '19
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 8 11 8 7 10 8 9 4 7 7 79 Jacob Weesies '20
Sam Colvin '20
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 2 5 10 11 8 9 11 8 8 10 8 88 Carla Marzari '19 [1-10]
Garrett Crozier '19 [1-9]
Craig Mueller '19 [10]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 12 12 4 11 12 13 10 7 11 10 102 Jacob Weaver '18
Lucas Blatter '18
Wildcats Wildcats Wildcats 9 9 5 4 6 7 11 13 DSQ DSQ 112 MRP
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 126 John Early '19 [1-5]
Theo Wachowski '20 [6-10]
Cory Rozeveld '19 [1-5]
Wen Fay '17 [6-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 11133557799
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 2224466881010
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers335577991111
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen44668810101212
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans55779911111313
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One66881010121211
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers99111113132244
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats77991111131322
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers88101012121133
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets 110101212113355
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets 211111313224466
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1121211335577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2131322446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 1224466881010
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers 2335577991111
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers44668810101212
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen55779911111313
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans66881010121211
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One77991111131322
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers10101212113355
WildcatsWildcats Wildcats88101012121133
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Boilermakers99111113132244
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets 111111313224466
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets 2121211335577
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1131322446688
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 21133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Elliot Lee '18 Nicholas Smart '18
Lakers 1 Jacob Weesies '20 Sam Colvin '20
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Joseph Kurta '20 [1-8]
Kate Cavataio '19 [9-10]		 Nichole Kievit '19 [1-8]
Jared Smith '20 [9-10]
Lakers 2 Matthew Harrison '19 [1-10] Connor Koryto '20 [1-8]
William Harrison '19 [9-10]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Pearce Pomerleau '19 Ben Dietderich '20
Chargers Jacob Weaver '18 Lucas Blatter '18
Hope College Hope College Libby Reeg '17 Lisette Boer '19
Flying Dutchmen Caroline Ritter '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Dylan Sabo '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Justin Edick '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Rachel Rantanen '19 Christian Mcalvey '18
Spartans Ryan Geiser '18 [1-10] Emma Hughes '19 [1-2]
Rebecca Meyer '19 [3-4]
Erin Mattucci '19 [5-6]
Jack Brieton '18 [7-8]
Bradley Grost '19 [9-10]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Nicholas Irwin '18 [1-10] Steven Golm '18 [1-5]
Madeline Steger '20 [6-10]
Husky One John Early '19 [1-5]
Theo Wachowski '20 [6-10]		 Cory Rozeveld '19 [1-5]
Wen Fay '17 [6-10]
Purdue University Purdue University Anshul Davda '18 Bogdan Visan '17
Boilermakers Mark Hurt '18 Mckenzie White '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Danielle Green '18 Cassandra Trask '20
Gophers Maya Smith '19 Holly Mckee '20
University of Toledo University of Toledo John Lowry '19 Benjamin Riley '19
Rockets 1 Delaney Imbler '17 Rebeccca Sadoski '18
University of Toledo University of Toledo Drew Blackburn '17 Carrington Gelardi '18
Rockets 2 Carla Marzari '19 [1-10] Garrett Crozier '19 [1-9]
Craig Mueller '19 [10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Zachary Miller '20 Peter Sauer '20
Badgers 1 Thomas Kelly '20 Anastasiya May '20
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Soren Hughes '18 Katharine Madigan '20
Badgers 2 Jonathan Thickens '19 Christopher Selzer '19

Conditions — 04/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 30°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From WNW (296°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1022.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · S 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Grand Valley State: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.52 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Valley State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Grand Valley State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →