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Streufert Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 11–1
2 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 10–2
3 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 5–7
4 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4–8
5 Grinnell College Grinnell College Pioneers 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,128 team race matches sailed before 2017-09-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 30 matches (53%) with a log-loss of 0.896 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.44 ± 0.37: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Minnesota
Gophers 2		42.83
school −0.19, home +0.38		Carl Eaton / Cassandra Trask
Miles Clark / Jessica Faragher
Ben Bachan / Jenna Pleshek		26%11–1 (92%)+7.9
2University of Minnesota
Gophers 1		14.83
school −0.19, home +0.38		Michael Stone / Danielle Green 1.68
Cailin Oakes / Bailey Adkins
Michael Valverde / Ryan Sigurdson 1.36 7–2
Michael Valverde / Maya Smith 1.33 3–0		77%10–2 (83%)+0.8
3University of Wisconsin
Badgers 1		24.50Katherine Zimmerman / Charlie Childs 1.39 2–7
Scott Sazama / Hayden Frentzel 2–7
Patrick Schmidt / Robin Ritchey 3–3
Patrick Schmidt / Christopher Selzer 2–4
Katherine Zimmerman / Anastasiya May 1.38 3–0
Scott Sazama / Collette Collins 3–0		71%5–7 (42%)−3.5
4University of Wisconsin
Badgers 2		52.76Jonathan Thickens / Kate Britt 3–6
Peter Sauer / Tye Rubin 3–6
Caroline Skotarzak / Anna Thickens 3–6
Jonathan Thickens / Logan Pearlman 1–2
Peter Sauer / Rebekah Janssen 1–2
Caroline Skotarzak / Zach Childs 1–2		25%4–8 (33%)+1.0
5Grinnell College
Pioneers		33.77Hanna O'Neill / Alexander Grigorovich
Stephen Cropper / Natalie Niederman
Duncan Ward / Sieglinde Thetard		51%0–12 (0%)−6.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Minnesota Gophers 22.836.6511–13.1+3.8319.2<1%
4University of Wisconsin Badgers 22.763.234–83.0+0.470.335%
2University of Minnesota Gophers 14.835.3010–29.2+0.460.344%
3University of Wisconsin Badgers 14.503.055–78.5−1.453.8>99%
5Grinnell College Pioneers3.770.770–126.2≤−3.0013.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Ben BachanUniversity of Minnesota-0.793.0411–13.1+3.8319.2<1%
Jonathan ThickensUniversity of Wisconsin-0.190.284–83.0+0.470.335%
Caroline SkotarzakUniversity of Wisconsin0.991.464–83.0+0.470.335%
Cailin OakesUniversity of Minnesota1.431.8910–29.2+0.460.344%
Michael ValverdeUniversity of Minnesota1.361.8310–29.2+0.460.344%
Katherine ZimmermanUniversity of Wisconsin1.39-0.065–78.5−1.453.8>99%
Scott SazamaUniversity of Wisconsin1.21-0.245–78.5−1.453.8>99%
Hanna O'NeillGrinnell College1.02-1.980–126.2≤−3.0013.1>99%
Stephen CropperGrinnell College1.02-1.980–126.2≤−3.0013.1>99%
Duncan WardGrinnell College1.02-1.980–126.2≤−3.0013.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 19%upset
12University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Grinnell College Pioneers71%
13University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 292%
14University of Minnesota Gophers 2Grinnell College Pioneers30%upset
15University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 288%
16University of Minnesota Gophers 1Grinnell College Pioneers77%
17University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 116%upset
18University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Grinnell College Pioneers26%upset
19University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 158%
110University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 250%
211University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 112%upset
212University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Grinnell College Pioneers66%
213University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 288%
214University of Minnesota Gophers 2Grinnell College Pioneers28%upset
215University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 112%upset
216University of Minnesota Gophers 1Grinnell College Pioneers73%
217University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 115%upset
218University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Grinnell College Pioneers27%upset
219University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 155%
220University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 249%upset
321University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 287%
322University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Grinnell College Pioneers64%
323University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 287%
324University of Minnesota Gophers 2Grinnell College Pioneers27%upset
325University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 287%
326University of Minnesota Gophers 1Grinnell College Pioneers70%
327University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 115%upset
328University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Grinnell College Pioneers26%upset
329University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 153%
330University of Minnesota Gophers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 249%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.2112Pioneers
University of Minnesota Gophers 27–1✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 13–5LL✕✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 23–5LL✕✕W
Grinnell College Pioneers0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.2112Pioneers
University of Minnesota Gophers 27–1✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 13–5LL✕✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 23–5LL✕✕W
Grinnell College Pioneers0–4LLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.2112Pioneers
University of Minnesota Gophers 27–1✕✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 17–1✕✕WWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 13–5LL✕✕W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 23–5LL✕✕W
Grinnell College Pioneers0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 4-5-6
2 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
3 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-6
4 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
5 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-4-6
6 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
7 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-4-6
8 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
9 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 4-5-6
10 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-5-6
11 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-4-5
12 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
13 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4-5-6
14 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-4-6
16 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-5 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 3-4-6
17 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
19 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2-3-6
20 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-5-6
21 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-4-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
23 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-5-6
24 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-4 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 3-5-6
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-5
26 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 4-5-6
27 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3-4-5
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-4 def. Grinnell College Pioneers 3-5-6
29 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 2-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-4-6
30 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-6

Conditions — 09/16/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1011.5 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1011.5 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Minnesota — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnesota in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →