University of Minnesota '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–29 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–10 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 9–3 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 3–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 27–29 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.61 | 1.15 | 2–10 | 2.8 | −0.46 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-09-22 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.49 | 0.58 | 9–3 | 9.7 | −0.91 | 0.5 | 94% |
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.47 | 1.70 | 3–5 | 2.7 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2017-09-16 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.68 | 2.15 | 10–2 | 9.2 | +0.46 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.53 | 2.04 | 3–9 | 2.5 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 49% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NWU Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 1.02 |
| Mendota Madness | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 0.58 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 13 | 16.8 | 0.46 |
| 2019 Laker Showdown | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | 1.14 |
| MCSA Match Race Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 1.44 |
| Great Lakes Intercollegiate Offshore Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 7 | 9.9 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | -0.58 |
| Laker Showdown | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 1.99 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 0.35 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 2 | 7.5 | 0.68 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 2.86 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 1.61 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.7 | 1.96 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 0.88 |
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.1 | 3.92 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Michael Stone |  University of Miami |
'19 |
| ISSA | Michael Stone |  Southwest High School |
'15 |
| ISSA | Michael Stone |  Blake School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
