2019 Laker Showdown

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 14 11 25
2 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 5 37 42
3 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 27 22 49
4 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 26 24 50
5 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 19 37 56
6 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 1 43 17 60
7 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 31 34 65
8 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 2 41 29 70
9 Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 53 MRP 47 MRP 100 MRP
10 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 69 MRP 58 MRP 127 MRP
11 Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 62 MRP 74 MRP 136 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 1 1 1 1 1 5 Liam Walz '21
Sarah Corder '23
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 3 2 4 2 14 Carl Eaton '21 [1-5]
Erin Bouton '22 [1-2, 5]
Jack Rickman '22 [3-4]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4 6 2 5 19 Jack Barnes '21
Elisabeth Johanson '22
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5 6 8 3 4 26 Christian Green '20
Kata Lamb '20
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 4 2 3 8 10 27 Anastasia Sikkila '22
Chelsea Spaman '22
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 9 8 4 7 3 31 Grace Goszkowicz '22
Conor Burns '21
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 2 6 7 10 11 7 41 Gabe Gentz '22 [1-5]
Cassandra Thayer '25 [1-2]
Mathieu St. Amour '21 [3-5]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 1 11 10 11 5 6 43 Nick Cortes '20 [1-5]
Mathieu St. Amour '21 [1-2]
Marissa Gallmeyer '20 [3-5]
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 7 5 7 6 8 53 MRP Grace Hillman '20
Rebecca Cesario '21
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 8 9 5 9 11 62 MRP Pearce Pomerleau '19
Mason Clutter '19
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 10 11 9 10 9 69 MRP Katie Gorgon '21 [1-5]
Anna Badger '21 [1-3]
Amelia Brickey '22 [4-5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 4 2 2 1 2 11 Michael Stone '19
Nicole Nelson '22
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 1 1 1 8 2 5 17 Patrick Sawyer '21 [1-5]
Trevor Krygier '21 [1-2]
Joseph Miska '21 [3-5]
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 2 4 9 4 3 22 David Resnick '18
Albert Lam '20
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5 10 5 3 1 24 Alana Lanser '22 [1-2]
John Di Lella '22 [3-5]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [1-2]
Mayalin Vondrasek '21 [3-5]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 2 6 6 6 5 6 29 Donny Marwin '22 [1-5]
Taylor Kunath '23 [1-2]
Ben Wiegand '20 [3-5]
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 3 3 10 10 8 34 Nina Mcalvey '20
Charles Soucey '22
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 7 9 4 8 9 37 Steven Domiter '21
Dominika Lulewicz '21
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 8 8 7 7 7 37 Ryan Higgins '20
Nichole Kievit '19
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Belles 9 7 1 6 4 47 MRP Mary Moir '20
Morgan Greene '21
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 11 5 3 9 10 58 MRP Nicole Fassnacht '22 [1-5]
Cortney Kingsley '18 [1-3]
Hannah Milkie '19 [4-5]
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Chargers 10 11 11 11 11 74 MRP Leahi Johsens '21
Emma Noverr '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers11335
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers22446
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen33557
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One 144668
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One 255779
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers8810101
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats668810
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish9911112
Saint Mary's CollegeSaint Mary's College Belles779911
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos1111224
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1010113

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers22446
Hillsdale CollegeHillsdale College Chargers33557
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen44668
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One 155779
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One 2668810
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers9911112
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats779911
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish1010113
Saint Mary's CollegeSaint Mary's College Belles8810101
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos11335
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers1111224
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Liam Walz '21 Sarah Corder '23
Lakers Ryan Higgins '20 Nichole Kievit '19
Hillsdale College Hillsdale College Pearce Pomerleau '19 Mason Clutter '19
Chargers Leahi Johsens '21 Emma Noverr '21
Hope College Hope College Grace Goszkowicz '22 Conor Burns '21
Flying Dutchmen Nina Mcalvey '20 Charles Soucey '22
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Nick Cortes '20 [1-5] Mathieu St. Amour '21 [1-2]
Marissa Gallmeyer '20 [3-5]
Husky One 1 Patrick Sawyer '21 [1-5] Trevor Krygier '21 [1-2]
Joseph Miska '21 [3-5]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Gabe Gentz '22 [1-5] Cassandra Thayer '25 [1-2]
Mathieu St. Amour '21 [3-5]
Husky One 2 Donny Marwin '22 [1-5] Taylor Kunath '23 [1-2]
Ben Wiegand '20 [3-5]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Katie Gorgon '21 [1-5] Anna Badger '21 [1-3]
Amelia Brickey '22 [4-5]
Wildcats Nicole Fassnacht '22 [1-5] Cortney Kingsley '18 [1-3]
Hannah Milkie '19 [4-5]
Saint Mary's College Saint Mary's College Grace Hillman '20 Rebecca Cesario '21
Belles Mary Moir '20 Morgan Greene '21
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Carl Eaton '21 [1-5] Erin Bouton '22 [1-2, 5]
Jack Rickman '22 [3-4]
Gophers Michael Stone '19 Nicole Nelson '22
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Christian Green '20 Kata Lamb '20
Fighting Irish Alana Lanser '22 [1-2]
John Di Lella '22 [3-5]
Daniel Timofeev '22 [1-2]
Mayalin Vondrasek '21 [3-5]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Jack Barnes '21 Elisabeth Johanson '22
Badgers Steven Domiter '21 Dominika Lulewicz '21
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Anastasia Sikkila '22 Chelsea Spaman '22
Broncos David Resnick '18 Albert Lam '20

Conditions — 04/06/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine5.5 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1021.7 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn · SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Grand Valley State: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Grand Valley State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Grand Valley State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →