MCSA Team Race Championship

HostWisconsin
Date04/29/2017
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Northwestern University	Wildcats	16–2
2	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	13–5
3	University of Michigan	Wolverines	12–6
4	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	Panthers	7–11
5	University of Minnesota	Gophers	3–9
6	Marquette University	Golden Eagles	2–10
7	University of Chicago	Maroons	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,900 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 54 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.398 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 58% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Northwestern University Wildcats	2	6.56	Ryder Easterlin / Audrey Debruine 1.78 Mark Davies / Michael Pauleen 2.94 12–2 Jacob Bruce / Susan Riley 1.85 10–2 Noah Rosenthal / Zachary Herron 1.88 10–0	68%	16–2 (89%)	+3.7
2	University of Wisconsin Badgers	1	6.77 home +0.38	Charles Bocklet / Erik Elliott 1.73 Kate Klement / Thomas Kelly Charlie Kutschenreuter / Alexander Blair 2.20	69%	13–5 (72%)	+0.6
3	University of Michigan Wolverines	3	6.55	Colton Gerber / Sidney Thompson Austin Haag / Amy Baer Mason Wolters / Michael Gapuz 2.69	64%	12–6 (67%)	+0.5
4	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers	4	6.41 school +0.36	Andre Deriaz / Dylan Morris 0.93 Jack Behrend / Susie Voltz Parker Trepton / Brett Hutchinson 2.75	61%	7–11 (39%)	−4.0
5	University of Minnesota Gophers	6	2.82 school −0.23	Maya Smith / Ryan Sigurdson Michael Valverde / Madeline Jones 1.13 Michael Stone / Danielle Green 2–4 Michael Stone / Julia Sachs 1–5	21%	3–9 (25%)	+0.5
6	Marquette University Golden Eagles	5	3.62 school −0.41	Ryan Clulo / Catherine Strietmann 1.74 1–9 Mason Chrabaszcz / Murphy Curran 1.29 1–9 Bobby Sessions / Learon Mcginn 2–6 Lindsey Clark / Owen Bradley 2–6	32%	2–10 (17%)	−1.9
7	University of Chicago Maroons	7	0.52	Geoffrey Owens / Carolyn Applebaum 0–6 Ken Ito / Madison Jewell 0–6 Kyra Martin / John Neenan 0–6 David Millstein / John Neenan 1–5 Geoffrey Owens / David Woldenberg 1–5 Kyra Martin / Madison Jewell 1–5	4%	1–11 (8%)	+0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Northwestern University	6.56	8.03	16–2	12.3	+1.46	3.5	3%
7	University of Chicago	0.52	1.38	1–11	0.5	+0.86	0.3	43%
5	University of Minnesota	2.82	3.32	3–9	2.5	+0.50	0.2	49%
2	University of Wisconsin	6.77	6.97	13–5	12.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
3	University of Michigan	6.55	6.71	12–6	11.5	+0.16	0.1	50%
4	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	6.41	4.92	7–11	11.0	−1.49	4.0	>99%
6	Marquette University	3.62	1.50	2–10	3.9	−2.12	2.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
David Millstein	University of Chicago	-0.44	2.76	1–5	0.1	+3.20	2.8	7%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	1.85	2.89	10–2	8.0	+1.04	1.4	16%
Geoffrey Owens	University of Chicago	0.17	1.03	1–11	0.5	+0.86	0.3	43%
Kyra Martin	University of Chicago	-0.59	0.27	1–11	0.5	+0.86	0.3	43%
Maya Smith	University of Minnesota	-0.03	0.47	3–9	2.5	+0.50	0.2	49%
Michael Valverde	University of Minnesota	1.13	1.63	3–9	2.5	+0.50	0.2	49%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	1.73	1.93	13–5	12.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
Kate Klement	University of Wisconsin	2.10	2.31	13–5	12.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
Charlie Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.20	2.41	13–5	12.4	+0.21	0.1	48%
Austin Haag	University of Michigan	1.83	1.99	12–6	11.5	+0.16	0.1	50%
Mason Wolters	University of Michigan	2.69	2.85	12–6	11.5	+0.16	0.1	50%
Andre Deriaz	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	0.93	-0.56	7–11	11.0	−1.49	4.0	>99%
Bobby Sessions	Marquette University	0.72	-1.31	2–6	3.5	−2.04	2.1	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Michigan	Marquette University	95%
1	2	Northwestern University	University of Chicago	99%
1	3	University of Wisconsin	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	59%
1	4	Northwestern University	Marquette University	85%
1	5	University of Michigan	University of Minnesota	98%
1	6	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	University of Chicago	99%
1	7	University of Wisconsin	Marquette University	93%
1	8	University of Minnesota	University of Chicago	80%
1	9	Northwestern University	University of Michigan	58%
1	10	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	University of Minnesota	97%
1	11	University of Wisconsin	University of Michigan	54%
1	12	University of Chicago	Marquette University	3%	upset
1	13	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	60%
1	14	University of Michigan	University of Chicago	100%
1	15	University of Wisconsin	University of Minnesota	98%
1	16	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	Marquette University	94%
1	17	University of Wisconsin	University of Chicago	100%
1	18	Northwestern University	University of Minnesota	98%
1	19	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	54%
1	20	University of Wisconsin	Northwestern University	48%	upset
1	21	Marquette University	University of Minnesota	64%
2	22	University of Wisconsin	Marquette University	94%
2	23	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	59%
2	24	University of Michigan	University of Chicago	100%
2	25	University of Wisconsin	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	59%
2	26	University of Michigan	Marquette University	94%
2	27	University of Minnesota	University of Chicago	79%
2	28	Northwestern University	University of Michigan	56%
2	29	University of Wisconsin	University of Minnesota	98%
2	30	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	Marquette University	93%
2	31	Northwestern University	University of Minnesota	98%
2	32	University of Wisconsin	University of Chicago	100%
2	33	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	53%
2	34	Northwestern University	University of Chicago	99%
2	35	University of Minnesota	Marquette University	36%	upset
2	36	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin	44%	upset
2	37	Marquette University	University of Chicago	96%
2	38	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	University of Minnesota	97%
2	39	University of Wisconsin	Northwestern University	50%	upset
2	40	University of Michigan	University of Minnesota	97%
2	41	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	University of Chicago	99%
2	42	Northwestern University	Marquette University	86%
2	49	Northwestern University	University of Michigan	56%
2	50	University of Wisconsin	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	59%
2	51	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	57%
2	52	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin	44%	upset
2	53	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	University of Michigan	47%	upset
2	54	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin	50%
4	43	Northwestern University	University of Michigan	57%
4	44	University of Wisconsin	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	59%
4	45	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	57%
4	46	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin	44%	upset
4	47	University of Michigan	University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	53%
4	48	Northwestern University	University of Wisconsin	51%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Wildcats	Badgers	Wolverines	Panthers	Gophers	Eagles	Maroons
Northwestern University Wildcats	5–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	6–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Minnesota Gophers	1–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Marquette University Golden Eagles	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L
University of Chicago Maroons	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Wildcats	Badgers	Wolverines	Panthers	Gophers	Eagles	Maroons
Northwestern University Wildcats	8–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	6–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	6–3	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers	4–5	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
University of Minnesota Gophers	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Marquette University Golden Eagles	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Chicago Maroons	0–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Wildcats	Badgers	Wolverines	Panthers
Northwestern University Wildcats	3–0	✕	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–2	L	✕	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–1	L	W	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Golden Eagles	3-5-6
2	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
3	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
4	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
5	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Gophers	4-5-6
6	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
7	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
8	Gophers	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
9	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Wolverines	1-5-6
10	Panthers	1-4-5	def.	Gophers	2-3-6
11	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
12	Maroons	1-3-6	def.	Golden Eagles	2-4-5
13	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Panthers	2-4-6
14	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
15	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Gophers	3-5-6
16	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Golden Eagles	3-4-5
17	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
18	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Gophers	4-5-6
19	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Panthers	1-5-6
20	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
21	Golden Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Gophers	3-5-6
22	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
23	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Panthers	2-3-6
24	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
25	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
26	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Golden Eagles	3-5-6
27	Gophers	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
28	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
29	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Gophers	3-4-6
30	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Golden Eagles	3-5-6
31	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Gophers	4-5-6
32	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
33	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Panthers	3-5-6
34	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
35	Gophers	1-2-6	def.	Golden Eagles	3-4-5
36	Wolverines	1-4-5	def.	Badgers	2-3-6
37	Golden Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Maroons	3-4-6
38	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Gophers	4-5-6
39	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
40	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Gophers	3-5-6
41	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
42	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Golden Eagles	4-5-6
49	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
50	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Panthers	3-4-5
51	Wildcats	1-3-4	def.	Panthers	2-5-6
52	Wolverines	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
53	Panthers	1-3-6	def.	Wolverines	2-4-5
54	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
43	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
44	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Panthers	4-5-6
45	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Panthers	2-4-6
46	Wolverines	2-3-5	def.	Badgers	1-4-6
47	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Panthers	3-4-6
48	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Mark Davies '20 Noah Rosenthal '18 Ryder Easterlin '20	Susan Riley '17 Michael Pauleen '18 Zachary Herron '18 Audrey Debruine '19
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Charles Bocklet '17 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 Kate Klement '17	Erik Elliott '17 Alexander Blair '18 Thomas Kelly '20
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Austin Haag '20 Colton Gerber '18 Mason Wolters '18	Amy Baer '19 Sidney Thompson '18 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee	Panthers	Andre Deriaz '18 Jack Behrend '20 Parker Trepton '18	Dylan Morris '20 Susie Voltz '19 Brett Hutchinson '19
University of Minnesota	Gophers	Maya Smith '19 Michael Stone '19 Michael Valverde '18	Ryan Sigurdson '18 Danielle Green '18 Julia Sachs '19 Madeline Jones '20
Marquette University	Golden Eagles	Bobby Sessions '20 Lindsey Clark '20 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 Ryan Clulo '18	Learon Mcginn '19 Owen Bradley '18 Murphy Curran '20 Catherine Strietmann '18
University of Chicago	Maroons	David Millstein '18 Geoffrey Owens '18 Ken Ito '20 Kyra Martin '18	John Neenan '20 David Woldenberg '19 Carolyn Applebaum '20 Madison Jewell '20

Conditions — 04/29/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.8 kn

avg · max 13.1 kn

Gusts to 28.4 kn

From NE (51°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1023.8 hPa Rain0.08 in

What this breeze does at Wisconsin — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Wisconsin in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.26)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.26 means a rating gap counts about 23% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled fleet-race days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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