Marquette University '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.79 (fleet 1.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–6 (25%) as crew 0–5 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 0–5 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 2–11 against 4.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.49 | -1.51 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.15 | -0.93 | 2–6 | 3.6 | −2.08 | 2.3 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 0.95 |
| 2017 Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 1.47 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | -0.17 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.4 | 1.46 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Crew | A | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Lindsey Clark |  Grosse Pointe South High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
