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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 17 33 50
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 22 38 60
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 45 33 78
4 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 69 35 104
5 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 55 52 107
6 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 85 51 136
7 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 42 96 138
8 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 82 90 172
9 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 85 95 180
10 University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 106 85 191
11 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 143 143 286
12 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 143 143 286
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 1 1 17 Parker Trepton '18 [1-11]
Brett Hutchinson '19 [1-8]
Susie Voltz '19 [9-11]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 5 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 22 Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 [1-11]
Olivia Staruck '20 [1-4, 9-11]
Mason Engnes '17 [5-8]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 4 3 10 3 6 3 3 1 3 4 2 42 Elliot Lee '18
Nicholas Smart '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3 2 3 7 3 5 RDG RDG 5 3 6 45 Eric Villadsen '17
Ryan Sigurdson '18
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 6 9 5 5 55 Dj Litts '18
Caroline Ritter '18
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 6 6 6 4 7 DNF 7 4 6 6 4 69 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-6, 11]
Lindsey Clark '20 [7-10]
Anne Clark '19 [1-2, 7-11]
Lindsey Clark '20 [3-4]
Thomas Burke '19 [5-6]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 8 7 5 6 8 8 9 5 8 9 9 82 Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17
Caitlin Chenus '19
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 9 8 7 8 9 6 8 9 7 7 7 85 Jacob Henley '17
Hannah Ramsby '17
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats DNF 10 9 9 5 7 5 7 4 8 8 85 Cortney Kingsley '18
Greg Tarmann '20
University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 7 9 8 DNF 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 106 Paul Detrempe '18 [1-11]
Steven Macenski '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Miranda Moody '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 143 Michael Valverde '18 [1-11]
Jessica Faragher '19 [1-2, 9-11]
Danielle Green '18 [3-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 143 Soren Hughes '18 [1-11]
Emily Anaya '18 [1-2, 9-11]
Chris Haisch '19 [3-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3 1 1 5 2 6 1 3 5 5 1 33 Isabella Hamilton '17 [1-11]
Julia Sachs '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Maya Smith '19 [5-8, 11]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 5 3 2 4 4 3 RDG 1 4 2 2 33 Andre Deriaz '18
Brittni Begale '16
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 4 2 4 1 1 4 4 4 3 4 4 35 Ryan Clulo '18 [1-11]
Robert Michielutti '18 [1-6]
Sydney Eger '20 [7-11]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 6 3 2 3 1 3 6 7 1 5 38 Zachary Miller '20 [1-11]
Megan Mcmahon '17 [1-6, 9-11]
Alise Mintz '19 [7-8]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 6 4 7 7 8 2 5 5 1 3 3 51 Nathan Miller '17
Colin Neuman '17
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 2 5 5 3 6 9 2 2 6 6 6 52 Libby Reeg '17 [1-11]
Elizabeth Morehead '19 [1-2, 9-10]
Nina Mcalvey '20 [3-8, 11]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Fighting Illini 8 8 9 6 5 DNF 9 10 2 7 8 85 Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20
Glen Ko '15
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 7 7 8 8 10 7 10 7 8 9 9 90 Lucas Kieffer '19
Emma Jordan-Wood '19
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 9 10 DNF 9 7 8 7 8 9 8 7 95 Riley Sorber '19
Hunter Bronkema '18
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 10 9 6 10 9 5 8 9 10 10 10 96 Kate Cavataio '19 [1-2, 9-11]
Addison Amstutz '19 [3-8]
Nichole Kievit '19 [1-2, 9-11]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 143 Cailin Oakes '18
Bailey Adkins '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 143 Jacob Stout '20 [1-4]
Zachary Mcclenathan '20 [5-6]
Nathan Cunningham '20 [7-11]
Katharine Madigan '20 [1-4, 7-11]
Logan Pearlman '20 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers779911111313151517
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen88101012121414161618
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Fighting Illini12121414161618188810
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes131315151717779911
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles9911111313151517177
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One101012121414161618188
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 114141616181888101012
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 2151517177799111113
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats1111131315151717779
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers18188810101212141416
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 116161818881010121214
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2171777991111131315

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers88101012121414161618
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen9911111313151517177
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Fighting Illini131315151717779911
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes14141616181888101012
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles101012121414161618188
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One1111131315151717779
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 1151517177799111113
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 216161818881010121214
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats12121414161618188810
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers779911111313151517
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1171777991111131315
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 218188810101212141416
School / Team SkipperCrew
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Elliot Lee '18 Nicholas Smart '18
Lakers Kate Cavataio '19 [1-2, 9-11]
Addison Amstutz '19 [3-8]		 Nichole Kievit '19 [1-2, 9-11]
Hope College Hope College Dj Litts '18 Caroline Ritter '18
Flying Dutchmen Libby Reeg '17 [1-11] Elizabeth Morehead '19 [1-2, 9-10]
Nina Mcalvey '20 [3-8, 11]
Marquette University Marquette University Mason Chrabaszcz '18 [1-6, 11]
Lindsey Clark '20 [7-10]		 Anne Clark '19 [1-2, 7-11]
Lindsey Clark '20 [3-4]
Thomas Burke '19 [5-6]
Golden Eagles Ryan Clulo '18 [1-11] Robert Michielutti '18 [1-6]
Sydney Eger '20 [7-11]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Jacob Henley '17 Hannah Ramsby '17
Husky One Nathan Miller '17 Colin Neuman '17
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Cortney Kingsley '18 Greg Tarmann '20
Wildcats Riley Sorber '19 Hunter Bronkema '18
University of Illinois University of Illinois Paul Detrempe '18 [1-11] Steven Macenski '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Miranda Moody '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Fighting Illini Jacob Dannhausen-Brun '20 Glen Ko '15
University of Iowa University of Iowa Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17 Caitlin Chenus '19
Hawkeyes Lucas Kieffer '19 Emma Jordan-Wood '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Eric Villadsen '17 Ryan Sigurdson '18
Gophers 1 Isabella Hamilton '17 [1-11] Julia Sachs '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Maya Smith '19 [5-8, 11]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Michael Valverde '18 [1-11] Jessica Faragher '19 [1-2, 9-11]
Danielle Green '18 [3-8]
Gophers 2 Cailin Oakes '18 Bailey Adkins '19
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Charlie Kutschenreuter '19 [1-11] Olivia Staruck '20 [1-4, 9-11]
Mason Engnes '17 [5-8]
Badgers 1 Zachary Miller '20 [1-11] Megan Mcmahon '17 [1-6, 9-11]
Alise Mintz '19 [7-8]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Soren Hughes '18 [1-11] Emily Anaya '18 [1-2, 9-11]
Chris Haisch '19 [3-8]
Badgers 2 Jacob Stout '20 [1-4]
Zachary Mcclenathan '20 [5-6]
Nathan Cunningham '20 [7-11]		 Katharine Madigan '20 [1-4, 7-11]
Logan Pearlman '20 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Parker Trepton '18 [1-11] Brett Hutchinson '19 [1-8]
Susie Voltz '19 [9-11]
Panthers Andre Deriaz '18 Brittni Begale '16

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 27.8 kn
From WNW (303°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1012.6 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn · S 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →