University of Wisconsin Milwaukee '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.58 (fleet 0.80) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–25 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 7–11 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 5–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 4–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 16–25 against 16.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.93 | -0.56 | 7–11 | 11.0 | −1.49 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.15 | 2.94 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.79 | 2.7 | 6% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.86 | -2.14 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 0.39 | 1.75 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | -0.28 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 39% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 18.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 1.27 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 1.85 |
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.4 | 1.47 |
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | -1.18 |
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 1.28 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 17.5 | -0.90 |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 0.43 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 0.34 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 1.10 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 0.90 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 0.40 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.5 | 1.11 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | -1.54 |
| Hawkeye Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 0.80 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.9 | — |
| 3 Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | -0.07 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | 1.02 |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.9 | -0.09 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
