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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 14 14 28
2 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 32 14 46
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 24 23 47
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 21 36 57
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 30 45 75
6 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 53 50 103
7 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon 59 62 121
8 University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 65 66 131
9 Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 86 MRP 70 MRP 156 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 14 Alison Kent '16
Cailin Oakes '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 5 1 1 5 2 2 4 1 21 Jacob Bruce '16
Samantha Harney '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 4 4 3 2 3 3 1 4 24 Eric Villadsen '17
Ryan Sigurdson '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 3 5 4 4 4 6 2 2 30 Medina Krevans '16 [1-4]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [5-8]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [1-4]
Medina Krevans '16 [5-8]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2 3 5 3 5 4 5 5 32 Andre Deriaz '18 [1-8]
Susie Voltz '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Scotty '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 53 Kelly Logacho '18
Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon 6 7 6 6 DNF DNS 7 7 59 John O'Leary '16 [1-8]
Julia Sachs '19 [1-4]
Ce Chen '16 [5-8]
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 65 Sarah Caporelli '19
Kyle Brooks '19
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 9 9 DNF DNS 6 5 9 8 86 MRP Ariel Worley '17 [1-8]
Regina Cornish '17 [1-5]
Carson Engle '19 [6-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 14 Hannah Noll '15 [1-8]
Brittni Begale '16 [1-4]
Rowan Nelis '20 [5-8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 2 3 1 1 3 2 1 1 14 Isabella Hamilton '17
Emily Johnson '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 3 1 3 5 1 4 3 3 23 Michael Valverde '18
Danielle Green '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 5 8 4 3 4 3 4 5 36 Zachary Li '19
Hannah Goblirsch '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 4 7 4 5 5 7 6 45 Jennie Werner '18
Audrey Debruine '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 4 5 9 6 6 6 6 8 50 Charles Novek '19
Lily Allen '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon 8 6 8 7 8 9 9 7 62 Christian Palo '19
Hannah Morris '18
University of Iowa University of Iowa Hawkeyes 9 9 6 9 9 7 8 9 66 Taren Lewis '18
Jessica Roy '19
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 6 7 5 8 7 8 5 4 70 MRP Andrew Hill '17
Lucy Walltisch '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes2525272720202222
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings2121232325252727
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Gold2727202022222424
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Maroon2828212123232525
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Women2626282821212323
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 12222242426262828
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 22323252527272020
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 32424262628282121
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2020222224242626

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of IowaUniversity of Iowa Hawkeyes2626282821212323
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings2222242426262828
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Gold2828212123232525
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Maroon2020222224242626
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Women2727202022222424
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 12323252527272020
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 22424262628282121
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 32525272720202222
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers2121232325252727
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lawrence University Lawrence University Ariel Worley '17 [1-8] Regina Cornish '17 [1-5]
Carson Engle '19 [6-8]
Vikings Andrew Hill '17 Lucy Walltisch '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Kelly Logacho '18 Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil '16
Wildcats 1 Charles Novek '19 Lily Allen '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University Medina Krevans '16 [1-4]
Katherine O'Donnell '19 [5-8]		 Katherine O'Donnell '19 [1-4]
Medina Krevans '16 [5-8]
Wildcats 2 Jennie Werner '18 Audrey Debruine '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Jacob Bruce '16 Samantha Harney '18
Wildcats 3 Zachary Li '19 Hannah Goblirsch '17
University of Iowa University of Iowa Sarah Caporelli '19 Kyle Brooks '19
Hawkeyes Taren Lewis '18 Jessica Roy '19
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Eric Villadsen '17 Ryan Sigurdson '18
Gopher Gold Michael Valverde '18 Danielle Green '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota John O'Leary '16 [1-8] Julia Sachs '19 [1-4]
Ce Chen '16 [5-8]
Gopher Maroon Christian Palo '19 Hannah Morris '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Alison Kent '16 Cailin Oakes '18
Gopher Women Isabella Hamilton '17 Emily Johnson '16
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Andre Deriaz '18 [1-8] Susie Voltz '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Scotty '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Panthers Hannah Noll '15 [1-8] Brittni Begale '16 [1-4]
Rowan Nelis '20 [5-8]

Conditions — 05/07/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 33%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity33% Pressure1014.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Minnesota: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.48 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →