University of Minnesota '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 1.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–8 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 7–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 20–8 against 22.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.50 | 1.49 | 7–3 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.60 | -1.33 | 1–2 | 2.6 | −2.93 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.20 | 0.35 | 12–3 | 13.2 | −0.84 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 14.7 | 1.04 |
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.0 | 2.28 |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.0 | 0.86 |
| Hawkeye Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.4 | 2.87 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 2.54 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.0 | 2.25 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 13.8 | 1.05 |
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.1 | 2.54 |
| Gopher Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.8 | 2.32 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | 0.91 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.4 | 0.75 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.7 | 2.36 |
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 1.30 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 2.42 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 1.69 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.4 | 1.60 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 2.40 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.0 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Pere Marquette Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.9 | 3.08 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.9 | 1.57 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.8 | 1.27 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.0 | 2.61 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin 3-Division | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 1.25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
