Streufert Team Race

HostMinnesota
Date09/20/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	14–1
2	University of Minnesota	Gopher Maroon	12–3
3	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	10–5
4	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 3	6–9
5	University of Wisconsin	Badgers 4	3–12
6	University of Minnesota	Gopher Gold	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,920 team race matches sailed before 2014-09-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 45 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.302 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	2	6.50 school −0.21	Soren Walljasper / Virginia Debbink 2.25 Charles Bocklet / Kelsea Kierstead 1.69 Laura Wefer / Jennifer Burke 2.63	84%	14–1 (93%)	+1.3
2	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	1	6.79 school +0.28, home +0.35	Emily Oltrogge / Emily Johnson Alison Kent / Cailin Oakes Isabella Hamilton / Michael Capper	88%	12–3 (80%)	−1.2
3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	5	3.88 school −0.21	Peter Grimmer / Laurel Stutz Ian Norman / Caya Mcfalls Nathan Jamieson / Elizabeth Ciborowski 1.37	39%	10–5 (67%)	+4.1
4	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	3	3.94 school −0.21	Ian Walter / Alexandra Manning Amelia Shankwitz / Ryan Stowe James Sitter / Korina Hendricks	41%	6–9 (40%)	−0.1
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	4	3.92 school −0.21	Kate Hayes / Mason Engnes 0.83 Erik Elliott / Alexander Jedrzejczak Brian Tobelmann / Thaddeus Brown	40%	3–12 (20%)	−3.1
6	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	6	1.84 school +0.28, home +0.35	Eric Villadsen / Ce Chen John O'Leary / Elizabeth Fennewald Teresa Westin / Samuel Burciaga	7%	0–15 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	3.88	5.85	10–5	5.9	+1.97	5.7	1%
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	6.50	7.77	14–1	12.6	+1.27	1.1	23%
4	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	3.94	3.88	6–9	6.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
2	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	6.79	5.95	12–3	13.2	−0.84	0.8	94%
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	3.92	2.34	3–12	6.1	−1.58	3.3	99%
6	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	1.84	-1.16	0–15	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Peter Grimmer	University of Wisconsin	0.62	2.59	10–5	5.9	+1.97	5.7	1%
Ian Norman	University of Wisconsin	1.48	3.45	10–5	5.9	+1.97	5.7	1%
Nathan Jamieson	University of Wisconsin	1.37	3.35	10–5	5.9	+1.97	5.7	1%
Soren Walljasper	University of Wisconsin	2.25	3.52	14–1	12.6	+1.27	1.1	23%
Charles Bocklet	University of Wisconsin	1.69	2.96	14–1	12.6	+1.27	1.1	23%
Laura Wefer	University of Wisconsin	2.63	3.90	14–1	12.6	+1.27	1.1	23%
Ian Walter	University of Wisconsin	0.93	0.87	6–9	6.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
Amelia Shankwitz	University of Wisconsin	1.23	1.16	6–9	6.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
James Sitter	University of Wisconsin	1.16	1.10	6–9	6.1	−0.06	0.0	67%
Emily Oltrogge	University of Minnesota	2.32	1.48	12–3	13.2	−0.84	0.8	94%
Alison Kent	University of Minnesota	1.94	1.10	12–3	13.2	−0.84	0.8	94%
Isabella Hamilton	University of Minnesota	1.20	0.35	12–3	13.2	−0.84	0.8	94%
Kate Hayes	University of Wisconsin	0.83	-0.75	3–12	6.1	−1.58	3.3	99%
Erik Elliott	University of Wisconsin	1.46	-0.13	3–12	6.1	−1.58	3.3	99%
Brian Tobelmann	University of Wisconsin	1.21	-0.37	3–12	6.1	−1.58	3.3	99%
Eric Villadsen	University of Minnesota	0.59	-2.41	0–15	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%
John O'Leary	University of Minnesota	-0.28	-3.28	0–15	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%
Teresa Westin	University of Minnesota	0.07	-2.93	0–15	1.1	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	96%
1	2	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	95%
1	3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	91%
1	4	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	51%
1	5	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	49%	upset
1	6	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	89%
1	7	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	95%
1	8	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	94%
1	9	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	89%
1	10	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	49%	upset
1	11	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	95%
1	12	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
1	13	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	49%	upset
1	14	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	93%
1	15	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
2	16	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	43%	upset
2	17	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	88%
2	18	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	50%
2	19	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
2	20	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	93%
2	21	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	49%	upset
2	22	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	89%
2	23	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	95%
2	24	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	93%
2	25	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	48%	upset
2	26	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
2	27	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	95%
2	28	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	93%
2	29	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	94%
2	30	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	88%
3	31	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
3	32	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	92%
3	33	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	47%	upset
3	34	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	88%
3	35	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	95%
3	36	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	91%
3	37	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	49%	upset
3	38	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	99%
3	39	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	94%
3	40	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	8%	upset
3	41	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	95%
3	42	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	89%
3	43	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	38%	upset
3	44	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	88%
3	45	University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	52%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	1	Maroon	2	3	4	Gold
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	1	Maroon	2	3	4	Gold
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	1	Maroon	2	3	4	Gold
University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕
University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 3	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers 4	11–9	✕	W	✕	✕	✕	W
University of Minnesota Gopher Gold	4–6	L	✕	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Badgers 1	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 2	4-5-6
2	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 3	4-5-6
3	Badgers 4	2-3-4	def.	Gopher Gold	1-5-6
4	Badgers 1	1-3-5	def.	Gopher Maroon	2-4-6
5	Badgers 2	1-2-5	def.	Badgers 4	3-4-6
6	Badgers 3	1-3-4	def.	Gopher Gold	2-5-6
7	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 4	4-5-6
8	Badgers 1	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 3	4-5-6
9	Badgers 2	1-2-5	def.	Gopher Gold	3-4-6
10	Badgers 3	1-2-5	def.	Badgers 4	3-4-6
11	Gopher Maroon	1-3-6	def.	Badgers 2	2-4-5
12	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Gopher Gold	3-5-6
13	Badgers 2	1-4-5	def.	Badgers 3	2-3-6
14	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 4	3-5-6
15	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
16	Badgers 1	1-2-5	def.	Gopher Maroon	3-4-6
17	Badgers 2	1-2-4	def.	Gopher Gold	3-5-6
18	Badgers 3	1-4-5	def.	Badgers 4	2-3-6
19	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
20	Badgers 1	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 3	4-5-6
21	Badgers 2	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 4	4-5-6
22	Badgers 3	2-3-4	def.	Gopher Gold	1-5-6
23	Gopher Maroon	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 2	3-5-6
24	Badgers 1	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 4	4-5-6
25	Badgers 2	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 3	3-5-6
26	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Gopher Gold	3-5-6
27	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 4	4-5-6
28	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 2	3-5-6
29	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Badgers 3	4-5-6
30	Badgers 4	1-2-4	def.	Gopher Gold	3-5-6
31	Gopher Maroon	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
32	Badgers 1	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 4	3-5-6
33	Badgers 2	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 3	3-5-6
34	Badgers 4	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
35	Gopher Maroon	1-2-6	def.	Badgers 2	3-4-5
36	Badgers 1	1-2-6	def.	Badgers 3	3-4-5
37	Badgers 2	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 4	3-5-6
38	Badgers 1	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
39	Gopher Maroon	1-4-5	def.	Badgers 3	2-3-6
40	Badgers 2	1-3-5	def.	Badgers 1	2-4-6
41	Gopher Maroon	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 4	3-5-6
42	Badgers 3	1-2-5	def.	Gopher Gold	3-4-6
43	Badgers 1	2-3-4	def.	Gopher Maroon	1-5-6
44	Badgers 2	1-2-3	def.	Gopher Gold	4-5-6
45	Badgers 3	1-2-4	def.	Badgers 4	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 1	Charles Bocklet '17 Laura Wefer '16 Soren Walljasper '17	Kelsea Kierstead '15 Jennifer Burke '16 Virginia Debbink '16
University of Minnesota	Gopher Maroon	Alison Kent '16 Emily Oltrogge '15 Isabella Hamilton '17	Cailin Oakes '18 Emily Johnson '16 Michael Capper '15
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 2	Ian Norman '18 Nathan Jamieson '17 Peter Grimmer '16	Caya Mcfalls '16 Elizabeth Ciborowski '17 Laurel Stutz '17
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 3	Amelia Shankwitz '17 Ian Walter '16 James Sitter '17	Ryan Stowe '17 Alexandra Manning '17 Korina Hendricks '17
University of Wisconsin	Badgers 4	Brian Tobelmann '18 Erik Elliott '17 Kate Hayes '16	Thaddeus Brown '18 Alexander Jedrzejczak '18 Mason Engnes '17
University of Minnesota	Gopher Gold	Eric Villadsen '17 John O'Leary '16 Teresa Westin '16	Ce Chen '16 Elizabeth Fennewald '18 Samuel Burciaga '16

Conditions — 09/20/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 64% · Pressure 1008.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 62°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.2 kn

avg · max 9.1 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From WNW (292°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1008.1 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Minnesota — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Minnesota in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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