University of Wisconsin '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 (fleet 1.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–6 (76%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 19–6 against 15.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.65 | 1.52 | 9–1 | 9.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.48 | 3.45 | 10–5 | 5.9 | +1.97 | 5.7 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 0.86 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 1.48 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl Intersectional | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 1.74 |
| Streufert Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 2.24 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 1.66 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin's 3 Division Regatta | Skipper | C | 6 | 4.3 | 0.84 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme's Tune-Up | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.7 | 0.02 |
| Pere Marquette Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.8 | 2.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
