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Streufert Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 9–1
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 8–2
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 7–3
4 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 5–3
5 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 4–4
6 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 1–7
7 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 2–6
8 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1–7
9 Iowa State University Iowa State University Cyclones 0–8
10 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 3 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,939 team race matches sailed before 2015-10-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 32 of 39 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.328 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Wisconsin
Badgers 1		16.87
school +0.10		Soren Walljasper / Caya Mcfalls 2.68
Ian Norman / Mason Engnes 1.65
Charlie Kutschenreuter / Korina Hendricks		91%9–1 (90%)−0.1
2University of Wisconsin
Badgers 2		44.73
school +0.10		James Sitter / Virginia Debbink 1.72
Noah Janssen / Ryan Stowe
Elliot Busta / Chris Haisch 5–2
Elliot Busta / Ally Dykman 3–0		56%8–2 (80%)+2.4
3University of Minnesota
Gophers 1		35.49
school −0.12, home +0.25		Alison Kent / Cailin Oakes 2.54
Isabella Hamilton / Jessica Faragher 1.50
Eric Villadsen / Ryan Sigurdson 1.01		70%7–3 (70%)−0.0
4University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
Panthers		73.05
school +0.16		Andre Deriaz / Brittni Begale 1.15
Zachary Aasen / Susie Voltz
John Schmidt / Brett Hutchinson 3–2
John Schmidt / Ben Scotty 2–1		37%5–3 (62%)+2.0
5University of Wisconsin
Badgers 3		25.12
school +0.10		Megan Mcmahon / Tate Castro
Jacob Siegel / Maggie Houtz
Katherine Zimmerman / Elizabeth Ciborowski		72%4–4 (50%)−1.7
6University of Wisconsin
Badgers 4		53.59
school +0.10		Brian Tobelmann / Cara Hanson 1.37
Ari Tessitore / Susan Luo
Elizabeth Hayes / Terry Thurk 1–2
Elizabeth Hayes 2–1
Elizabeth Hayes / Alise Mintz 0–2		46%3–5 (38%)−0.7
7Marquette University
Golden Eagles		63.36
school −0.19		Mason Chrabaszcz / Mariah Miller 1.01 1–5
Ryan Clulo / Mackenzie Guarneri 1.35 1–4
No Show / Claire Heneghan 0.90 1–3
No Show / Matthew Leiser 0.91 1–3
Ryan Clulo / Evan Boutelle 1.37 1–2
Mason Chrabaszcz / Evan Boutelle 1.14 1–1		42%2–6 (25%)−1.4
8University of Minnesota
Gophers 2		81.29
school −0.12, home +0.25		Michael Valverde / Ce Chen 1.08
Michael Adkins / Julia Sachs
Christian Palo / Hannah Morris		17%1–7 (12%)−0.4
9Iowa State University
Cyclones		9-1.15Tate Carlson / Jacques Arnolt
James Sincox / Alec Wehmeier
Noah Carter / Jackson Braatz 0–5
Noah Carter / Christopher Owen 0–3		2%0–8 (0%)−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers3.054.855–33.0+1.792.76%
2University of Wisconsin Badgers 24.736.528–25.6+1.793.05%
3University of Minnesota Gophers 15.495.487–37.0−0.010.068%
1University of Wisconsin Badgers 16.876.749–19.1−0.130.078%
6University of Wisconsin Badgers 43.592.913–53.7−0.670.388%
8University of Minnesota Gophers 21.290.301–71.4−0.990.295%
5University of Wisconsin Badgers 35.123.594–45.7−1.531.999%
7Marquette University Golden Eagles3.361.732–63.4−1.621.598%
9Iowa State University Cyclones-1.15-4.150–80.1≤−3.000.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Andre DeriazUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee1.152.945–33.0+1.792.76%
Zachary AasenUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee1.293.085–33.0+1.792.76%
John SchmidtUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee0.222.015–33.0+1.792.76%
James SitterUniversity of Wisconsin1.723.508–25.6+1.793.05%
Noah JanssenUniversity of Wisconsin1.523.318–25.6+1.793.05%
Elliot BustaUniversity of Wisconsin1.102.898–25.6+1.793.05%
Alison KentUniversity of Minnesota2.542.537–37.0−0.010.068%
Isabella HamiltonUniversity of Minnesota1.501.497–37.0−0.010.068%
Eric VilladsenUniversity of Minnesota1.011.007–37.0−0.010.068%
Soren WalljasperUniversity of Wisconsin2.682.549–19.1−0.130.078%
Ian NormanUniversity of Wisconsin1.651.529–19.1−0.130.078%
Charlie KutschenreuterUniversity of Wisconsin2.232.099–19.1−0.130.078%
Brian TobelmannUniversity of Wisconsin1.370.703–53.7−0.670.388%
Ari TessitoreUniversity of Wisconsin0.930.263–53.7−0.670.388%
Elizabeth HayesUniversity of Wisconsin0.770.103–53.7−0.670.388%
Michael ValverdeUniversity of Minnesota1.080.091–71.4−0.990.295%
Michael AdkinsUniversity of Minnesota0.34-0.651–71.4−0.990.295%
Christian PaloUniversity of Minnesota-0.79-1.781–71.4−0.990.295%
Megan McmahonUniversity of Wisconsin1.12-0.414–45.7−1.531.999%
Katherine ZimmermanUniversity of Wisconsin1.14-0.394–45.7−1.531.999%
No ShowMarquette University0.90-0.722–63.4−1.621.598%
Noah CarterIowa State University-0.65-3.650–80.1≤−3.000.2>99%
Tate CarlsonIowa State University-0.47-3.470–80.1≤−3.000.2>99%
James SincoxIowa State University-0.68-3.680–80.1≤−3.000.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Minnesota Gophers 1Marquette University Golden Eagles89%
12University of Minnesota Gophers 2Iowa State University Cyclones93%
13University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 480%
14University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 311%upset
15University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 299%
16University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Marquette University Golden Eagles79%
17University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersIowa State University Cyclones99%
18University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 384%
19University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 297%
110University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers91%
111University of Wisconsin Badgers 3Iowa State University Cyclones100%
112University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 497%
113University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers84%
114University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 358%
115University of Wisconsin Badgers 4Marquette University Golden Eagles54%
116University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Iowa State University Cyclones100%
117University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Wisconsin Badgers 338%upset
118University of Wisconsin Badgers 4University of Minnesota Gophers 291%
119University of Minnesota Gophers 1Iowa State University Cyclones100%
120University of Wisconsin Badgers 1Marquette University Golden Eagles97%
121University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 435%upset
122University of Wisconsin Badgers 2Iowa State University Cyclones100%
123Marquette University Golden EaglesUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 288%
124University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 121%upset
125University of Wisconsin Badgers 3University of Wisconsin Badgers 481%
126University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersMarquette University Golden Eagles42%upset
127University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 132%upset
128University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 2100%
129University of Wisconsin Badgers 4Iowa State University Cyclones99%
130University of Wisconsin Badgers 3Marquette University Golden Eagles86%
131University of Wisconsin Milwaukee PanthersUniversity of Minnesota Gophers 285%
132University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 289%
133Marquette University Golden EaglesIowa State University Cyclones99%
134University of Minnesota Gophers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 485%
135University of Wisconsin Badgers 3University of Minnesota Gophers 298%
136University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers97%
237University of Wisconsin Badgers 2University of Minnesota Gophers 132%upset
238University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Minnesota Gophers 179%
239University of Wisconsin Badgers 1University of Wisconsin Badgers 289%

Round 1

TeamRec.121Panthers34Eagles2Cyclones3
University of Wisconsin Badgers 121–11✕✕WW✕✕WWWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 221–11✕✕WW✕✕WWWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 18–8LL✕LLLL✕W✕
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers5–3LLW✕LLWWWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 321–11✕✕WW✕✕WWWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 421–11✕✕WW✕✕WWWW
Marquette University Golden Eagles2–6LLWLLL✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers 28–8LL✕LLLL✕W✕
Iowa State University Cyclones0–8LLLLLLLL✕L
University of Minnesota Gophers 38–8LL✕LLLL✕W✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1213423
University of Wisconsin Badgers 13–1✕✕W✕✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 23–1✕✕W✕✕WW
University of Minnesota Gophers 10–2LL✕LL✕✕
University of Wisconsin Badgers 33–1✕✕W✕✕WW
University of Wisconsin Badgers 43–1✕✕W✕✕WW
University of Minnesota Gophers 20–2LL✕LL✕✕
University of Minnesota Gophers 30–2LL✕LL✕✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
2 University of Minnesota Gophers 2 1-2-4 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 3-5-6
3 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 3-4-5
4 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-4-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 2-3-6
5 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
6 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-5 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-4-6
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
8 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 3-5-6
9 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
10 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 3-4-6
11 University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
12 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 3-5-6
13 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-3-6 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2-4-5
14 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 1-5-6
15 University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 2-3-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 1-5-6 DSQ
16 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
17 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 2-4-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-4-6
19 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
20 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 4-5-6
21 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 1-5-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
23 Marquette University Golden Eagles 1-4-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2-3-6
24 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 3-4-5
25 University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 3-4-6
26 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-2-6 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-4-5
27 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 2-4-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-3-5 DSQ
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 4-5-6
29 University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
30 University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 1-2-4 def. Marquette University Golden Eagles 3-5-6
31 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 1-3-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 2-5-6
32 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 4-5-6
33 Marquette University Golden Eagles 1-2-3 def. Iowa State University Cyclones 4-5-6
34 University of Minnesota Gophers 1 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 4 3-4-5
35 University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 1-2-4 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2 3-5-6
36 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-4 def. University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 3-5-6
37 University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-4-5
38 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3-4-5
39 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3-4-6

Conditions — 10/17/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1031.3 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 53°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From WNW (294°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1031.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnesota — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnesota in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →