Marquette University '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.36 (fleet 1.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–40 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 2–6 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 3–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 16–40 against 19.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.66 | -1.34 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.63 | 2.30 | 7–6 | 6.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.74 | 0.67 | 1–9 | 1.9 | −1.07 | 0.7 | 94% |
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.35 | -0.27 | 2–6 | 3.4 | −1.62 | 1.5 | 98% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.42 | -0.68 | 3–7 | 4.7 | −2.10 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.22 | 1.68 | 3–7 | 2.6 | +0.46 | 0.1 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 17.2 | 0.60 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.9 | 2.23 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 2.88 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 0.97 |
| 2017 Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.3 | 1.76 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | C | 10 | 1.9 | 3.13 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.4 | 2.08 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 1.53 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 7 | 17.1 | 0.48 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 17 | 15.9 | 1.11 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.6 | 1.21 |
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.7 | 1.30 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.2 | 2.16 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| WISCO 3 Division | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.2 | 1.94 |
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 0.69 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.3 | 1.85 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 1.08 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 0.49 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.1 | 1.51 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 1.61 |
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.8 | 2.55 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 0.44 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 1.25 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.0 | 1.51 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ryan Clulo |  St. Francis High School Traverse City |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
