| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | Panthers | 4–6 |
| 4 |  |
Marquette University | Golden Eagles | 3–7 |
| 5 |  |
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,462 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 25 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.157 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Michigan | 7.62 | 10.62 | 10–0 | 9.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 79% |
| 3 | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 2.43 | 3.79 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| 2 | Northwestern University | 5.55 | 6.11 | 8–2 | 7.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 70% |
| 4 | Marquette University | 3.71 | 1.61 | 3–7 | 4.7 | −2.10 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 5 | University of Notre Dame | -1.48 | -4.48 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Brown | University of Michigan | 1.64 | 4.64 | 8–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Mason Wolters | University of Michigan | 2.19 | 5.20 | 8–0 | 7.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| Alex Ramos | University of Michigan | 3.38 | 6.38 | 8–0 | 7.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| Thomas Etheridge | University of Michigan | 2.15 | 5.15 | 4–0 | 3.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Isak Peterson | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 0.68 | 2.04 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Andre Deriaz | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 0.39 | 1.75 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Hannah Noll | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 0.66 | 2.02 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Robert Johnston | Northwestern University | 1.49 | 2.05 | 8–2 | 7.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 70% |
| Travis Cottle | Northwestern University | 1.84 | 2.40 | 8–2 | 7.8 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 70% |
| Jack Lakowske | Marquette University | 1.01 | -1.09 | 3–7 | 4.7 | −2.10 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Bryan Enriquez | University of Notre Dame | -1.10 | -4.10 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Matt Reilly | University of Notre Dame | -0.99 | -3.99 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Mae Raab | University of Notre Dame | -0.06 | -3.06 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Wolverines | Wildcats | Panthers | Eagles | Irish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wolverines | Wildcats | Panthers | Eagles | Irish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Wolverines | Wildcats | Panthers | Eagles | Irish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 2–0 | ✕ | – | – | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 2–0 | – | ✕ | W | – | W |
| University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers | 1–1 | – | L | ✕ | W | – |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles | 0–2 | L | – | L | ✕ | – |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0–2 | L | L | – | – | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Golden Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wildcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Golden Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Golden Eagles | 1-2-6 DNS | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Golden Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Wildcats | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines | Alex Ramos '15 Christopher Cyr '16 Kyle Brown '26 Mason Wolters '18 Thomas Etheridge '16 |
Emily Gazall '16 Alison Bradley '16 Michael Gapuz '18 |
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | Noah Rosenthal '18 Robert Johnston '15 Travis Cottle '15 |
Jacob Bruce '16 Allison Park '17 Michael Pauleen '18 |
|
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | Panthers | Andre Deriaz '18 Hannah Noll '15 Isak Peterson '15 |
Brittni Begale '16 Cole Meller '17 Hannah Girard '18 |
|
Marquette University | Golden Eagles | Jack Lakowske '18 Mason Chrabaszcz '18 Ryan Clulo '18 |
Robert Michielutti '18 Alexander Duffy '19 Catherine Strietmann '18 Andi Regalbuto '17 |
|
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | Bryan Enriquez '15 Mae Raab '18 Matt Reilly '18 |
Alessandro Disanto '15 Lissa Stachnik '16 Martha Murphy '18 Patrick Penny '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
