University of Wisconsin Milwaukee '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.39 (fleet 0.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–9 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 4–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 4–9 against 2.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.96 | -2.04 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2015-04-11 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 0.68 | 2.04 | 4–6 | 2.7 | +1.35 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| Northwestern Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 0.99 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 1.62 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | -0.05 |
| Hawkeye Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 0.94 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.9 | 1.11 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.8 | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.9 | 1.12 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | -0.22 |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 0.30 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| Wisconsin 3-Division | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 1.98 |
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.9 | 0.26 |
| Nelson Roltsch | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 0.09 |
| MCSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 0.53 |
| Gopher Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 0.11 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.2 | -0.70 |
| Spring 2012 Season | |||||
| 3 Division | Skipper | C | 4 | 7.0 | -0.23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
