Nelson Roltsch

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 12 5 17
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 17 13 30
3 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 15 25 40
4 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 26 23 49
5 Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 32 23 55
6 University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 24 32 56
7 Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 34 GDQ 39 GDQ 73 GDQ
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 2 7 1 1 1 12 Michael Sager '15
Skylar Smith '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 3 2 3 5 2 15 Benjamin Otten '14
Hannah Noll '15
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 4 1 5 2 5 17 Jessica Oswalt '16 [1-2]
Alexandra Payne '15 [3-5]
Addison Adams '17 [1-2]
Amanda Earl '16 [3-5]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 7 3 4 4 6 24 Masie Comen '15
Hunter Ledonne '15
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5 4 7 6 4 26 Peter Roehmholdt '14
Madeleine Skorcz '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 6 6 6 7 7 32 Kayla Sjoberg '14
Paige Meineke '14
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 1 5 2 3 3 34 GDQ No Show
James Van Camp '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Trey Hartman '15
Sara Stafford '15
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 2 3 4 2 2 13 Michael Swanson '16 [1-2, 5]
Benjamin Kaplan '17 [3-4]
Sierra Orlowski '17 [1-2]
Susan Herndon '15 [3-4]
Benjamin Kaplan '17 [5]
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 2 3 5 7 5 3 23 Ryan Murphy '15 [1-2, 5]
Kayla Sonnier '15 [3-4]
Kayla Sonnier '15 [1-2, 5]
Ryan Murphy '15 [3-4]
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 6 4 2 7 4 23 Anne Schoenwetter '14
Sarah Eide '14
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 5 6 5 4 5 25 Isak Peterson '15 [1-5]
No Show [1-2]
Christopher Ponsonby '17 [3-4]
Bret Lindquist '15 [5]
University of Texas University of Texas Longhorns 7 7 6 6 6 32 No Show
Brinley Kranz '16
Loyola University New Orleans Loyola University New Orleans Wolfpack 4 2 3 3 7 39 GDQ No Show [1-5]
No Show [1-2]
James Van Camp '15 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack33557
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish44668
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns88335
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 155779
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 266883
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave77994
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers99446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Loyola University New OrleansLoyola University New Orleans Wolfpack44668
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish55779
University of TexasUniversity of Texas Longhorns99446
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 166883
Texas A&M University at GalvestonTexas A&M University at Galveston Aggies 277994
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave88335
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers33557

Conditions — 02/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1019.4 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1019.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn · NE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tulane: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.46 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →