| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Notre Dame | Fighting Irish | 3–5 |
| 4 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
University of Minnesota | Gophers | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | Panthers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,682 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 21 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.286 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.04 ± 0.38: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Wisconsin | 9.61 | 12.61 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 3 | University of Notre Dame | 5.07 | 6.01 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 4 | Northwestern University | 5.37 | 5.91 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2 | University of Michigan | 7.78 | 8.08 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 5 | University of Minnesota | 6.38 | 3.43 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −2.95 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 6 | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 3.17 | 0.17 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kutschenreuter | University of Wisconsin | 3.19 | 6.19 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Connor Trepton | University of Wisconsin | 2.98 | 5.98 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Laura Wefer | University of Wisconsin | 2.99 | 5.99 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| Travis Cottle | Northwestern University | 1.82 | 2.91 | 2–4 | 1.4 | +1.08 | 0.5 | 37% |
| Mike Flanigan | University of Notre Dame | 2.08 | 3.02 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| Patrick Power | University of Notre Dame | 1.49 | 2.43 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| John Schneider | University of Notre Dame | 1.13 | 2.08 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| Jacob Bruce | Northwestern University | 1.65 | 2.20 | 3–5 | 2.5 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Christopher Cyr | University of Michigan | 2.36 | 2.66 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Thomas Etheridge | University of Michigan | 2.11 | 2.41 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Alex Ramos | University of Michigan | 3.25 | 3.55 | 6–2 | 5.8 | +0.30 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Robert Johnston | Northwestern University | 1.48 | 1.26 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 80% |
| Isabella Hamilton | University of Minnesota | 1.60 | -1.33 | 1–2 | 2.6 | −2.93 | 3.5 | >99% |
| Emily Oltrogge | University of Minnesota | 2.43 | -0.52 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −2.95 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Alison Kent | University of Minnesota | 2.47 | -0.48 | 1–4 | 2.7 | −2.95 | 3.7 | >99% |
| Andre Deriaz | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 0.86 | -2.14 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Hannah Noll | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 1.13 | -1.87 | 0–5 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Isak Peterson | University of Wisconsin Milwaukee | 0.96 | -2.04 | 0–3 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Badgers | Wolverines | Irish | Wildcats | Gophers | Panthers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Minnesota Gophers | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Badgers | Wolverines | Irish | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Wisconsin Badgers | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Michigan Wolverines | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Gophers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Badgers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wolverines | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Gophers | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Badgers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Badgers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gophers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Badgers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Panthers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Gophers | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Badgers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Gophers | 3-5-6 OCS |
| 16 | |
Wolverines | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-6 |
| 17 | |
Badgers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Wolverines | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Badgers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Wildcats | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Badgers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolverines | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
