University of Notre Dame '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (fleet 1.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–14 (22%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–5 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 4–14 against 2.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.08 | 3.02 | 3–5 | 2.1 | +0.94 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | 2.44 | 1–9 | 0.6 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.4 | 1.07 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 15 | 13.0 | 2.28 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.8 | 2.85 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.49 |
| MCSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.08 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.7 | 1.13 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.3 | 2.87 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Pere Marquette Cup | Skipper | A, B | 8 | 2.6 | 2.64 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| 2012 Harris Kempner Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.1 | 2.35 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Tune-Up | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 2.26 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 1.71 |
| Cary-Price Memorial Regatta | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.6 | 2.63 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
