Cary-Price Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 13 8 21
2 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 10 12 22
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 7 25 32
4 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 24 12 36
5 Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 27 25 52
6 Miami University Miami University Miami University 30 23 53
7 Purdue University Purdue University Purdue 30 35 65
8 Ohio State Ohio State Ohio State 39 40 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 2 1 2 1 7 Geoff Pedrick '12
Danielle Baurer '12
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 3 2 1 2 10 Ryan Seago '14
Ansley Semack '14
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 1 3 3 3 13 Nathaniel Walden '12
Elizabeth Werley '12
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 4 5 6 RDG 24 Alden Sonnenfeldt '13
Didi Mcdonald '15
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels DSQ 5 4 4 5 27 Graham Hutchings '14
James Morrin '14
Miami University Miami University Miami University 5 7 6 5 7 30 William Andreae '13
Jennifer Palladino '15
Purdue University Purdue University Purdue 6 6 7 7 4 30 Matthew Parker '11
Brian Rosensteel '13
Ohio State Ohio State Ohio State 7 8 8 8 8 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
University of Notre Dame University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3 1 1 1 2 8 Mike Flanigan '15
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 2 2 4 3 12 Ellen Dubois '14
Rachel Barch '13
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 3 3 3 1 12 Nick Balta '15
Erin Ahlers '13
Miami University Miami University Miami University 5 4 6 2 6 23 Andrew Wilkening '15
Mackenzie Vizgirda '15
Queen's University Queen's University Gaels 4 6 5 6 4 25 Zoe Lewis '13
Oliver Blake '13
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 5 4 5 5 25 Max Clemons '12
Megan Mcevily '14
Purdue University Purdue University Purdue 7 7 7 7 7 35 Matthew Parker '11
Brian Rosensteel '13
Ohio State Ohio State Ohio State 8 8 8 8 8 40
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red11446
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University44668
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines22557
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats66881
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish55779
Ohio StateOhio State Ohio State77992
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Purdue88114
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels99225

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red22556
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University55778
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines44667
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats77991
University of Notre DameUniversity of Notre Dame Fighting Irish66889
Ohio StateOhio State Ohio State88112
Purdue UniversityPurdue University Purdue99224
Queen's UniversityQueen's University Gaels11445

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1020.8 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.9 kn
avg  ·  max 16.6 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From N (359°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1020.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 15 kn · NW 14 kn · N 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Michigan, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →