University of Michigan '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.49 (fleet 3.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–49 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 23–41 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 12–0 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 1–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (76 matches) the record is 35–41 against 35.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.18 | 2.71 | 4–11 | 4.7 | −0.47 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2014-04-19 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.01 | 3.25 | 12–3 | 11.6 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.89 | 2.87 | 4–18 | 4.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.04 | 2.95 | 3–9 | 3.2 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2013-11-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 5.67 | 12–0 | 11.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 84% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
