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MCSA Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 13–3
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 12–4
3 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 9–6
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3–12
5 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,697 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 33 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.284 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Michigan
Wolverines		29.09
school +0.15		Will Cyr / Elizabeth Wallace 2.64
Ryan Seago / Scott Ismail 3.01
Alex Ramos / Karinne Smolenyak 3.19		77%12–3 (80%)+0.4
2University of Wisconsin
Badgers		19.09
school −0.18, home +0.34		Connor Trepton / Katrina Debbink 3.01
Michael Lee / Erin Monahan 2.97
George Kutschenreuter / Jennifer Burke 3.15 7–4
John Kinzel / Caya Mcfalls 4–0		84%11–4 (73%)−1.6
3University of Minnesota
Gophers		36.90Drake Lundeen / Sarah Ellis
Ryan Grosch / Paige Boegeman
Wheeler Morris / Emily Johnson 2.22		46%8–6 (57%)+1.5
4Northwestern University
Wildcats		44.14
school +0.33		Jacob Bruce / Aislinn Mcmillan 1.02
Travis Cottle / Yi Zhang 1.48
Robert Johnston / Allison Park 1.08		15%2–12 (14%)−0.1
5University of Illinois
Illini		51.93Melinda Lee / Diana Perez
Charles Diamond / Filippa Malmqvist
Emily Slabe / Melinda Lee		3%0–8 (0%)−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of Minnesota6.908.208–66.5+1.301.612%
1University of Michigan9.099.3312–311.6+0.240.154%
4Northwestern University4.143.832–122.1−0.310.087%
2University of Wisconsin9.098.2011–412.6−0.901.095%
5University of Illinois1.93-1.070–80.2≤−3.000.3>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
John KinzelUniversity of Wisconsin1.774.774–03.9≥+3.000.193%
Drake LundeenUniversity of Minnesota2.083.388–66.5+1.301.612%
Ryan GroschUniversity of Minnesota1.843.158–66.5+1.301.612%
Ryan SeagoUniversity of Michigan3.013.2512–311.6+0.240.154%
Alex RamosUniversity of Michigan3.193.4312–311.6+0.240.154%
Jacob BruceNorthwestern University1.020.712–122.1−0.310.087%
Travis CottleNorthwestern University1.481.172–122.1−0.310.087%
Robert JohnstonNorthwestern University1.080.772–122.1−0.310.087%
Connor TreptonUniversity of Wisconsin3.012.1111–412.6−0.901.095%
Michael LeeUniversity of Wisconsin2.972.0711–412.6−0.901.095%
George KutschenreuterUniversity of Wisconsin3.152.157–48.6−1.001.296%
Melinda LeeUniversity of Illinois1.07-1.930–80.2≤−3.000.3>99%
Charles DiamondUniversity of Illinois0.96-2.040–80.2≤−3.000.3>99%
Emily SlabeUniversity of Illinois-0.78-3.780–80.2≤−3.000.3>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota94%
12Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Illinois93%
13University of MichiganNorthwestern University99%
14University of WisconsinUniversity of Illinois100%
15University of MichiganUniversity of Illinois100%
16University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota95%
17University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University93%
18University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin42%upset
19University of MinnesotaUniversity of Illinois99%
110University of WisconsinNorthwestern University98%
121University of MinnesotaUniversity of Michigan12%upset
122University of WisconsinNorthwestern University98%
123University of MichiganNorthwestern University99%
124University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota91%
125University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University95%
126University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin41%upset
211University of WisconsinUniversity of Illinois100%
212University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University94%
213University of WisconsinUniversity of Michigan59%
214Northwestern UniversityUniversity of Illinois88%
215University of MichiganUniversity of Minnesota90%
216University of WisconsinNorthwestern University98%
217University of MichiganUniversity of Illinois100%
218University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota92%
219University of MichiganNorthwestern University99%
220University of MinnesotaUniversity of Illinois99%
227University of MinnesotaUniversity of Michigan12%upset
228University of WisconsinNorthwestern University98%
229University of MichiganNorthwestern University99%
230University of WisconsinUniversity of Minnesota91%
231University of MinnesotaNorthwestern University95%
232University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin40%upset
233University of MichiganUniversity of Wisconsin40%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.WolverinesBadgersGophersWildcatsIllini
University of Michigan Wolverines6–1✕WLWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers5–2L✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers4–3WL✕WW
Northwestern University Wildcats1–6LLL✕W
University of Illinois Illini0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WolverinesBadgersGophersWildcatsIllini
University of Michigan Wolverines6–2✕WLWW
University of Wisconsin Badgers6–2L✕WWW
University of Minnesota Gophers4–3WL✕WW
Northwestern University Wildcats1–6LLL✕W
University of Illinois Illini0–4LLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-5
2 Northwestern University Wildcats 2-3-4 def. University of Illinois Illini 1-5-6
3 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
4 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Illinois Illini 4-5-6
5 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. University of Illinois Illini 4-5-6
6 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-6
7 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-5 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-6
8 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-5
9 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-3 def. University of Illinois Illini 4-5-6
10 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
21 University of Minnesota Gophers 2-3-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 1-4-6
22 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
23 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-4-5
24 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-6
25 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-4 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 3-5-6
26 University of Michigan Wolverines 2-3-4 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-5-6
11 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. University of Illinois Illini 4-5-6
12 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
13 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 3-4-6
14 Northwestern University Wildcats 1-3-5 def. University of Illinois Illini 2-4-6
15 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-5
16 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
17 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-4 def. University of Illinois Illini 3-5-6
18 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-5 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 3-4-6
19 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
20 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-3 def. University of Illinois Illini 4-5-6
27 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-3-5 def. University of Michigan Wolverines 2-4-6
28 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
29 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
30 University of Wisconsin Badgers 1-3-6 def. University of Minnesota Gophers 2-4-5
31 University of Minnesota Gophers 1-2-3 def. Northwestern University Wildcats 4-5-6
32 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-2-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 3-4-6
33 University of Michigan Wolverines 1-3-5 def. University of Wisconsin Badgers 2-4-6

Conditions — 04/19/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1025.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.6 kn
Gusts to 23.9 kn
From SE (146°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1025.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Wisconsin — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Wisconsin in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.22)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.22 means a rating gap counts about 19% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled fleet-race days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →