University of Illinois '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.79 (fleet 1.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–8 (0%) as crew 0–8 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 0–16 against 0.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-19 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–8 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| 2014-04-19 | MCSA Team Race Championship | crew | 1.07 | -1.93 | 0–8 | 0.2 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| WISCO 3 Division | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.1 | 1.09 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 1.07 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Spring | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 0.38 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Fighting Illini Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 2.5 | 1.67 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.0 | 1.83 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.5 | 1.57 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Northwestern Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.8 | 1.60 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Chief Illiniwek Memorial Regatta | Crew | A | 7 | 3.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
