Chief Illiniwek Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 12 14 26
2 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 32 14 46
3 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 23 25 48
4 University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 34 34 68
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 36 35 71
6 Miami University Miami University Miami University 33 57 90
7 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 55 46 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 12 Alex Lubben '13
Caroline Darin '14
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 4 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 23 Zi Chong Kao '14
Abigail Lapier '14
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini DNF 6 2 1 6 5 3 1 32 Kevan Lee Lum '14
Melinda Lee '16
Miami University Miami University Miami University 2 4 6 5 2 4 4 6 33 Max Burson '16
Annabel Brooks '16
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 5 5 5 2 5 2 6 4 34 Brian Moy '14
Taylor Valentor '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 3 4 6 4 6 5 5 36 Emily Fontaine '14 [1-8]
Luke Vogelzang '15 [1-4, 7-8]
Connor Schmitt '14 [5-6]
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 55 Jesse Magana '13
Gavin Laflower '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 3 14 Jacob Bruce '16 [1-8]
Gina Krupp '15 [1-6]
Riza Ulman '16 [7-8]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 14 Adam Flanders '14
Haley Johnson '14
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 5 BKD 3 3 4 3 1 25 Katy Carlyle '15 [1-4, 7-8]
Harry Posner '16 [5-6]
Leah Chapman '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Harry Posner '16 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 5 6 6 4 4 1 4 4 34 Tyler Albert '14
Brenden Jacobs '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 35 Matthew Sullivan '14
Mariam Al-Askari '15
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 6 46 Michael Metzen '14
Jon Callahan '14
Miami University Miami University Miami University 7 7 7 7 DNS DNS 6 7 57 Felipe Dalman '16
Claudia Schneider '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons111166881010
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini121277991111
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames668810101212
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers7799111166
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University881010121277
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple101012127799
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats9911116688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons121277991111
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini668810101212
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames7799111166
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers881010121277
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University9911116688
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple111166881010
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats101012127799

Conditions — 10/06/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1022.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 11 kn · W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Illinois: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.21 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Illinois by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Illinois, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →