Fighting Illini Regatta

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Washington University Washington University Bears 16 23 39
2 University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 36 11 47
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 26 42 68
4 University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 38 30 68
5 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 37 MRP 55 MRP 92 MRP
6 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 62 MRP 54 MRP 116 MRP
7 Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 69 MRP 66 MRP 135 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Washington University Washington University Bears 1 1 1 3 3 2 4 1 16 Mary Prothero '15 [1-8]
Arvind Balasundaram '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Jason Chen '16 [3-4]
Julia Kindlon '15 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 3 3 5 2 1 1 5 6 26 Charles Tokowitz '17
Elizabeth Philip '18
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 5 6 2 6 4 4 6 3 36 Olivia Zwierski-Moran '16
Brian Waddell '16
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 2 37 MRP Najwa Jumali '16
Brian Ritter '17
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 7 5 4 4 7 6 1 4 38 Noor Willemsen '17 [1-6]
Melinda Lee '16 [7-8]
Paul Detrempe '18 [1-6]
Emily Slabe '15 [7-8]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 4 7 6 7 5 5 3 5 62 MRP Geoffrey Owens '18
Kyra Martin '18
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 6 4 7 5 6 7 7 7 69 MRP Conor Sexton '15
Lucy Walltisch '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Flames 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 11 Taylor Valentor '16
Shannon Yates '16
Washington University Washington University Bears 2 2 5 3 4 2 1 4 23 Theodore Cohen '16 [1-8]
Beril Celikmen '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Jonathan Gross '18 [3-4]
Russell Melin '17 [5-6]
University of Illinois University of Illinois Illini 5 3 2 4 3 7 3 3 30 Nicole Hakim '15
Daniel Downie '15
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 4 3 6 7 5 6 7 42 Spencer Carlson '17
Gina Krupp '15
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 6 6 4 2 2 3 5 6 54 MRP Moritz Matzner '15
David Millstein '18
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 3 5 BKD 5 5 6 2 5 55 MRP Jonathan Ellefsen '16
Rachel Horton '15
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 7 7 6 7 6 4 7 2 66 MRP Andrew Hill '17
Ariel Worley '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons8810105577
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini9911116688
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames1010557799
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers5577991111
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings6688101055
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats7799111166
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears111166881010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons9911116688
University of IllinoisUniversity of Illinois Illini1010557799
University of Illinois - ChicagoUniversity of Illinois - Chicago Flames111166881010
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers6688101055
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings7799111166
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats8810105577
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears5577991111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Indiana University Indiana University Najwa Jumali '16 Brian Ritter '17
Hoosiers Jonathan Ellefsen '16 Rachel Horton '15
Lawrence University Lawrence University Conor Sexton '15 Lucy Walltisch '17
Vikings Andrew Hill '17 Ariel Worley '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Charles Tokowitz '17 Elizabeth Philip '18
Wildcats Spencer Carlson '17 Gina Krupp '15
University of Chicago University of Chicago Geoffrey Owens '18 Kyra Martin '18
Maroons Moritz Matzner '15 David Millstein '18
University of Illinois University of Illinois Noor Willemsen '17 [1-6]
Melinda Lee '16 [7-8]
Paul Detrempe '18 [1-6]
Emily Slabe '15 [7-8]
Illini Nicole Hakim '15 Daniel Downie '15
University of Illinois - Chicago University of Illinois - Chicago Olivia Zwierski-Moran '16 Brian Waddell '16
Flames Taylor Valentor '16 Shannon Yates '16
Washington University Washington University Mary Prothero '15 [1-8] Arvind Balasundaram '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Jason Chen '16 [3-4]
Julia Kindlon '15 [5-6]
Bears Theodore Cohen '16 [1-8] Beril Celikmen '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Jonathan Gross '18 [3-4]
Russell Melin '17 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/11/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1022.4 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From ENE (66°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1022.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn · SE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Illinois: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Illinois by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Illinois, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →