University of Wisconsin '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.37 (fleet 3.27) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–46 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 20–27 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 15–15 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (83 matches) the record is 37–46 against 38.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 3.18 | 3.13 | 5–10 | 5.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2015-04-17 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.98 | 5.98 | 8–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 68% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.02 | 3.41 | 5–10 | 4.0 | +0.39 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2015-03-07 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 2.42 | 2–7 | 2.6 | −0.60 | 0.2 | 87% |
| 2014-04-19 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.01 | 2.11 | 11–4 | 12.6 | −0.90 | 1.0 | 95% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.98 | 2.50 | 4–11 | 5.0 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.54 | 3.14 | 2–4 | 1.8 | +0.60 | 0.1 | 71% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
