APS Team Race Championship

HostSouth Florida
Date05/25/2013
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	18–5
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	16–7
3	Brown University	Bears	14–9
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	14–9
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	13–7
6	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–8
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	11–9
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–11
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	6–7
10	Boston College	Eagles	6–7
11	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	2–11
11	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	2–11
13	University of Washington	Huskies	2–11
14	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	0–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,548 team race matches sailed before 2013-05-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 87 of 125 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.468 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.13 ± 0.20: a typical event, more orderly than 30% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	5	11.59	Graham Landy / Marlena Fauer 3.95 Cam Cullman / Katherine Gaumond 3.72 Christopher Segerblom / Heather May 3.87 14–3 Christopher Segerblom / Eugenia Custo Greig 3.78 4–2	63%	18–5 (78%)	+3.5
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	11.14 school +0.44	Joshua Greenslade / Kayla Mccomb 3.85 John Wallace / Katherine Gluskin 3.22 14–5 Fletcher Sims / Mayumi Roller 3.79 11–4 Jacob La Dow / Ainsley Thomson 3.13 4–3 John Wallace / Ainsley Thomson 3.25 2–2 Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 3.62 1–0	51%	16–7 (70%)	+4.3
3	Brown University Bears	6	11.60 school +0.29	Colin Smith / Louisa Chafee 3.75 13–9 Tommy Fink / Ashley Noble 4.05 13–9 Tyler Rice / Michael Yanagisawa 3.48 12–9 Judge Ryan / Michael Yanagisawa 3.56 2–0 Tommy Fink / Kristin Altreuter 3.89 1–0 Judge Ryan / Kristin Altreuter 3.43 1–0	62%	14–9 (61%)	−0.3
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.12 school +0.08	Nevin Snow / Victoria Lynch 4.24 13–9 Chris Barnard / Hilary Kenyon 4.31 9–4 Alex Post / Katia Dasilva 3.46 9–4 Chris Barnard / Katia Dasilva 4.45 4–5 Alex Post / Annalee Leggett 3.40 4–1 Sean Golden / Annalee Leggett 3.39 0–4 Chris Barnard / Leslie Cowen 4.16 1–0 Nevin Snow / Nancy Hagood 3.99 1–0 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.28 1–0	73%	14–9 (61%)	−2.8
5	College of Charleston Cougars	4	11.71	Juan Maegli / Septima Mcadams 4.38 Mac Mace / Corinna Decollibus 3.59 Ben Spector / Alicia Blumenthal 3.69 12–6 Ben Spector / Brooks Clark 3.56 1–1	67%	13–7 (65%)	−0.5
6	Stanford University Cardinal	1	12.17 school +0.35	Oliver Toole / Haley Kirk 3.94 Kieran Chung / Yuri Namikawa 3.83 Kevin Laube / Carolyn Ortel 4.00 10–8 Kevin Laube / Katie Riklin 3.77 2–0	75%	12–8 (60%)	−3.0
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	10.74 school +0.14	Alec Anderson / Alyssa Seifert 4.25 9–8 William Macdonald / Bianca Rom 3.31 9–8 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.06 5–8 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.18 5–0 William Macdonald / Alexander Rudkin 3.07 2–1 Alec Anderson / James Bartlein 3.90 2–1 Henry Vogel / Alexander Rudkin 2.79 1–1	47%	11–9 (55%)	+1.7
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	10	10.54 school +0.09	Michael Grove / Jocelynn Knudsen 3.55 Taylor Vann / Alexandra Asuncion 3.30 9–9 Devin Laviano / Elizabeth Morrison 3.43 4–8 Mary Hall / Glenn Mckenna 3.68 5–5	42%	9–11 (45%)	+0.6
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	9	10.16	Eddie Cox / Catherine Pelo 2.98 Johnny Norfleet / Bridget Nannig 3.71 Louis Padnos / Jane Rew 3.41	44%	6–7 (46%)	+0.2
10	Boston College Eagles	3	11.54 school +0.11	William Bailey / Molly Clarke 3.81 Raul Rios / Patrick Hession 3.95 Alex Cook / Laura Mckenna 3.67 5–5 Alex Cook / Elizabeth Barnard 3.56 1–2	70%	6–7 (46%)	−3.1
11	University of Hawaii Rainbows	12	7.36 school +0.36	Mitchell Icard / Ana-Melissa Kea 1.75 Adam Pokras / Kellie Yamada 2.85 2–10 Madeline Kennedy / Lindsay Stewart 2.51 2–8 Giacomo Paoletti / Lindsay Stewart 2.09 0–2 Giacomo Paoletti / Madeline Kennedy 2.06 0–1 Giacomo Paoletti / Kellie Yamada 2.10 0–1	15%	2–11 (15%)	+0.0
11	University of Wisconsin Badgers	11	7.59	Brendan Boylan / Kelsea Kierstead 2–10 George Kutschenreuter / Erin Monahan 2–5 Connor Trepton / Katrina Debbink 2–3 George Kutschenreuter / Katrina Debbink 0–3 Andrew Fox / Kirstin Reeser 0–3 George Kutschenreuter / Katlyn Putney 0–2 Andrew Fox / Katrina Debbink 0–2 Andrew Fox / Katie Hall 0–1 Brendan Boylan / Daniel Hanna 0–1 Andrew Fox / Katlyn Putney 0–1 George Kutschenreuter / Kirstin Reeser 0–1 Connor Trepton / Arielle Henderson 0–1	19%	2–11 (15%)	−0.5
13	University of Washington Huskies	13	7.12	Zachary Forcade / Caylin Cordray 2.17 Kris Thompson / Molly Utter 1.83 Karl Haelsig / Sarah Redmond 3.03	15%	2–11 (15%)	+0.1
14	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	14	5.34 school +0.37	Nicholas Chong / Sara Stafford 1.32 Benjamin Kennady / Rachel Mcmahon 1.93 0–9 Michael Sager / Ryan Murphy 1.38 0–9 Benjamin Kennady / Brittney Crawford 2.02 0–4 Collin Weston / Rachel Mcmahon 1.95 0–4	3%	0–13 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.14	12.14	16–7	11.7	+1.00	3.1	3%
1	Yale University	11.59	12.47	18–5	14.5	+0.89	2.1	7%
7	Roger Williams University	10.74	11.21	11–9	9.3	+0.47	0.6	26%
8	U. S. Naval Academy	10.54	10.72	9–11	8.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.16	10.29	6–7	5.8	+0.13	0.0	56%
13	University of Washington	7.12	7.23	2–11	1.9	+0.11	0.0	67%
11	University of Hawaii	7.36	7.41	2–11	2.0	+0.05	0.0	70%
3	Brown University	11.60	11.54	14–9	14.3	−0.06	0.0	65%
5	College of Charleston	11.71	11.59	13–7	13.5	−0.13	0.0	70%
11	University of Wisconsin	7.59	6.97	2–11	2.5	−0.63	0.2	88%
4	Georgetown University	12.12	11.47	14–9	16.8	−0.65	1.3	95%
6	Stanford University	12.17	11.34	12–8	15.0	−0.83	1.9	97%
10	Boston College	11.54	9.98	6–7	9.0	−1.57	3.3	99%
14	Texas A&M University at Galveston	5.34	2.34	0–13	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.18	5.08	6–1	4.1	+1.90	2.5	8%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.79	4.83	12–4	9.2	+1.04	2.1	8%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.85	4.84	16–7	11.7	+1.00	3.1	3%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.22	4.22	16–7	11.7	+1.00	3.1	3%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.13	4.07	4–3	2.5	+0.93	1.0	20%
Graham Landy	Yale University	3.95	4.84	18–5	14.5	+0.89	2.1	7%
Cam Cullman	Yale University	3.72	4.61	18–5	14.5	+0.89	2.1	7%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	3.87	4.76	18–5	14.5	+0.89	2.1	7%
Connor Trepton	University of Wisconsin	2.54	3.14	2–4	1.8	+0.60	0.1	71%
Adam Pokras	University of Hawaii	2.85	3.34	2–10	1.7	+0.50	0.1	61%
Alec Anderson	Roger Williams University	4.25	4.72	11–9	9.3	+0.47	0.6	26%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.31	3.78	11–9	9.3	+0.47	0.6	26%
Taylor Vann	U. S. Naval Academy	3.30	3.76	9–9	7.7	+0.46	0.4	30%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.55	3.74	9–11	8.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Devin Laviano	U. S. Naval Academy	3.43	3.60	4–8	3.7	+0.17	0.0	52%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.98	3.11	6–7	5.8	+0.13	0.0	56%
Louis Padnos	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.41	3.54	6–7	5.8	+0.13	0.0	56%
Madeline Kennedy	University of Hawaii	2.51	2.63	2–8	1.9	+0.12	0.0	69%
Zachary Forcade	University of Washington	2.17	2.28	2–11	1.9	+0.11	0.0	67%
Kris Thompson	University of Washington	1.83	1.94	2–11	1.9	+0.11	0.0	67%
Mitchell Icard	University of Hawaii	1.75	1.80	2–11	2.0	+0.05	0.0	70%
Tommy Fink	Brown University	4.05	3.99	14–9	14.3	−0.06	0.0	65%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.48	3.41	12–9	12.3	−0.06	0.0	65%
Colin Smith	Brown University	3.75	3.69	13–9	13.3	−0.07	0.0	65%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.46	3.39	14–5	14.2	−0.07	0.0	67%
Juan Maegli	College of Charleston	4.38	4.25	13–7	13.5	−0.13	0.0	70%
Ben Spector	College of Charleston	3.69	3.56	13–7	13.5	−0.13	0.0	70%
Mac Mace	College of Charleston	3.59	3.46	13–7	13.5	−0.13	0.0	70%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.06	2.93	5–8	5.3	−0.14	0.0	69%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.68	3.37	5–5	5.5	−0.31	0.1	78%
George Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	2.69	2.06	2–11	2.5	−0.63	0.2	88%
Brendan Boylan	University of Wisconsin	2.11	1.48	2–11	2.5	−0.63	0.2	88%
Chris Barnard	Georgetown University	4.31	3.65	14–9	16.8	−0.65	1.3	95%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.24	3.59	14–9	16.8	−0.65	1.3	95%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.00	3.17	12–8	15.0	−0.83	1.9	97%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.94	3.11	12–8	15.0	−0.83	1.9	97%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	3.83	2.99	12–8	15.0	−0.83	1.9	97%
Alex Cook	Boston College	3.67	2.10	6–7	9.0	−1.57	3.3	99%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.81	2.25	6–7	9.0	−1.57	3.3	99%
Raul Rios	Boston College	3.95	2.38	6–7	9.0	−1.57	3.3	99%
Andrew Fox	University of Wisconsin	2.44	-0.56	0–7	0.7	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%
Nicholas Chong	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.32	-1.68	0–13	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Benjamin Kennady	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.93	-1.07	0–13	0.4	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Collin Weston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.95	-1.05	0–4	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.39	0.39	0–4	2.6	≤−3.00	5.4	>99%
Michael Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.38	-1.62	0–9	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%
Giacomo Paoletti	University of Hawaii	2.09	-0.91	0–4	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	54%
1	2	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
1	3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Boston College	21%	upset
1	4	College of Charleston	University of Hawaii	99%
1	5	Brown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	6	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	7	Stanford University	University of Washington	99%
1	8	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
1	9	Boston College	Roger Williams University	78%
1	10	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
1	11	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	81%
1	12	Georgetown University	University of Hawaii	98%
1	13	University of Washington	University of Wisconsin	46%	upset
1	14	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	15	Yale University	Boston College	51%
1	16	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
1	17	Roger Williams University	Brown University	24%	upset
1	18	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Washington	96%
1	20	University of Hawaii	Texas A&M University at Galveston	86%
1	21	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	22	College of Charleston	Boston College	54%
1	23	Brown University	Yale University	50%
1	24	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	30%	upset
1	25	Roger Williams University	University of Washington	98%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Wisconsin	93%
1	28	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	99%
1	29	Brown University	College of Charleston	47%	upset
1	30	Boston College	Georgetown University	35%	upset
1	31	Yale University	University of Washington	99%
1	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	33	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	34	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Hawaii	96%
1	35	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
1	36	Brown University	Georgetown University	36%	upset
1	37	College of Charleston	University of Washington	99%
1	38	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	39	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Hawaii	98%
1	41	Roger Williams University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	68%
1	42	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
1	43	Georgetown University	University of Washington	99%
1	44	Brown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	45	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	46	Boston College	University of Hawaii	99%
1	47	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	81%
1	48	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
1	49	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	80%
1	50	University of Washington	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	51	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	52	Brown University	University of Hawaii	99%
1	53	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
1	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	23%	upset
1	55	Yale University	Roger Williams University	69%
1	56	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
1	57	University of Wisconsin	Texas A&M University at Galveston	93%
1	58	University of Hawaii	University of Washington	60%
1	59	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
1	60	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	77%
1	61	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	28%	upset
1	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	40%	upset
1	63	Yale University	Stanford University	36%	upset
1	64	University of Wisconsin	University of Hawaii	73%
1	65	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	66	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Washington	97%
1	67	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	21%	upset
1	68	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	43%	upset
1	69	Yale University	College of Charleston	47%	upset
1	70	Stanford University	Boston College	65%
1	71	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Hawaii	93%
1	72	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	94%
1	73	Roger Williams University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	74	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Washington	99%
1	75	Yale University	Georgetown University	38%	upset
1	76	Brown University	Boston College	51%
1	77	College of Charleston	Stanford University	38%	upset
1	78	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	62%
1	79	Roger Williams University	University of Hawaii	98%
1	80	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	81	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	82	Boston College	University of Washington	99%
1	83	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	60%
1	84	Brown University	Stanford University	36%	upset
1	85	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	54%
1	86	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	24%	upset
1	87	Yale University	University of Hawaii	98%
1	88	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	89	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	90	Brown University	University of Washington	98%
1	91	Stanford University	Georgetown University	52%
4	120	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	44%	upset
4	121	Yale University	Georgetown University	38%	upset
4	122	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
4	123	Yale University	Brown University	50%	upset
4	124	Brown University	Georgetown University	36%	upset
4	125	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	30%	upset
8	92	College of Charleston	Roger Williams University	71%
8	93	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	30%	upset
8	94	Brown University	Georgetown University	36%	upset
8	95	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	75%
8	96	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	80%
8	97	College of Charleston	Brown University	53%
8	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	64%
8	99	Georgetown University	Yale University	62%
8	100	Brown University	Stanford University	35%	upset
8	101	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	46%	upset
8	102	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	59%
8	103	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	30%	upset
8	104	U. S. Naval Academy	Brown University	23%	upset
8	105	Georgetown University	Stanford University	47%	upset
8	106	Roger Williams University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	49%	upset
8	107	College of Charleston	Yale University	53%
8	108	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
8	109	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Brown University	44%	upset
8	110	College of Charleston	Stanford University	38%	upset
8	111	Yale University	Roger Williams University	69%
8	112	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	70%
8	113	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	23%	upset
8	114	Roger Williams University	Brown University	24%	upset
8	115	Yale University	Stanford University	35%	upset
8	116	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	26%	upset
8	117	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	79%
8	118	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
8	119	Yale University	Brown University	50%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Bears	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Hawks	Midshipmen	Statesmen	Eagles	Rainbows	Badgers	Huskies	Aggies
Yale University Bulldogs	12–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9–4	L	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	11–2	W	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–6	L	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	9–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	10–3	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–4	L	L	W	W	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	6–7	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	2–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	2–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
University of Washington Huskies	2–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	0–13	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Bears	Hoyas
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	✕	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–1	W	✕	W	L
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Round 8

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Bears	Hoyas	Cougars	Cardinal	Hawks	Midshipmen
Yale University Bulldogs	4–3	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	W	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	2–5	L	L	✕	W	L	W	L	L
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–3	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L
Stanford University Cardinal	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	W	L	W	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
2	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
3	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
4	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
5	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
9	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
10	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
13	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
14	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
15	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
17	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
19	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
20	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
21	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
22	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
23	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
24	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
25	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
27	Statesmen	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
28	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
30	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
31	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
33	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
34	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
35	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
36	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
37	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
39	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
40	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Rainbows	2-5-6
41	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
42	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
45	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
46	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
47	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
48	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
49	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
50	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
52	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
53	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
54	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
56	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
57	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
58	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
61	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
62	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
64	Badgers	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
65	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
66	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
67	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
68	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
70	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
71	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
72	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
73	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
74	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
76	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
77	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
78	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
79	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
80	Seahawks	1-3-5	def.	Badgers	2-4-6
81	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
82	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
83	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
84	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
85	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
86	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
88	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
89	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
90	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
91	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
120	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
121	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
122	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
123	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
124	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
125	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
92	Cougars	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
93	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
94	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
95	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
96	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
97	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
98	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
99	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
100	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
101	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
102	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
103	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
104	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
105	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
106	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
107	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
108	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
109	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
110	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
111	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
112	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
113	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
114	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
115	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
116	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
117	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
118	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
119	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Cam Cullman '13 Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15	Katherine Gaumond '15 Eugenia Custo Greig '14 Heather May '13 Marlena Fauer '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 Jacob La Dow '15 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Mayumi Roller '13 Kelley Merryman '14 Ainsley Thomson '13 Katherine Gluskin '13 Kayla Mccomb '13
Brown University	Bears	Colin Smith '13 Judge Ryan '14 Tommy Fink '13 Tyler Rice '14	Louisa Chafee '14 Michael Yanagisawa '13 Kristin Altreuter '14 Ashley Noble '13
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Chris Barnard '13 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Annalee Leggett '13 Katia Dasilva '15 Katie Olsen '15 Hilary Kenyon '13 Leslie Cowen '13 Victoria Lynch '13 Nancy Hagood '14
College of Charleston	Cougars	Ben Spector '13 Juan Maegli '13 Mac Mace '13	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Brooks Clark '13 Septima Mcadams '16 Corinna Decollibus '13
Stanford University	Cardinal	Kevin Laube '14 Kieran Chung '15 Oliver Toole '14	Carolyn Ortel '14 Katie Riklin '13 Yuri Namikawa '14 Haley Kirk '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Alec Anderson '13 Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Alyssa Seifert '13 James Bartlein '15 Abby Preston '15 Alexander Rudkin '14 Wendy Reuss '15 Bianca Rom '13
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Devin Laviano '13 Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Taylor Vann '13	Elizabeth Morrison '14 Glenn Mckenna '14 Jocelynn Knudsen '13 Alexandra Asuncion '15
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Johnny Norfleet '13 Louis Padnos '14	Catherine Pelo '13 Bridget Nannig '13 Jane Rew '14
Boston College	Eagles	Alex Cook '13 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Laura Mckenna '13 Elizabeth Barnard '15 Patrick Hession '13 Molly Clarke '13
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Adam Pokras '14 Giacomo Paoletti '15 Madeline Kennedy '14 Mitchell Icard '13	Kellie Yamada '16 Lindsay Stewart '13 Madeline Kennedy '14 Ana-Melissa Kea '13
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Andrew Fox '13 Brendan Boylan '13 Connor Trepton '15 George Kutschenreuter '15	Kirstin Reeser '15 Katlyn Putney '14 Katie Hall '16 Katrina Debbink '15 Kelsea Kierstead '15 Daniel Hanna '13 Arielle Henderson '13 Erin Monahan '14
University of Washington	Huskies	Karl Haelsig '14 Kris Thompson '16 Zachary Forcade '13	Sarah Redmond '15 Molly Utter '14 Caylin Cordray '13
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Benjamin Kennady '13 Collin Weston '13 Michael Sager '15 Nicholas Chong '13	Rachel Mcmahon '15 Brittney Crawford '15 Ryan Murphy '15 Sara Stafford '15

Conditions — 05/25/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

85°F

↑ 89°F ↓ 75°F

Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 10.1 kn

Gusts to 22.2 kn

From ENE (67°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1020.5 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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