Yale University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 71.81 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.115 rating points from 17 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.63 (fleet 3.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–10 (62%) as crew 59–24 (71%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 4–8 | 17–3 |
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 12–2 | 42–21 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 44–21 against 44.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | crew | 4.41 | 4.70 | 17–3 | 16.2 | +0.30 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.51 | 3.10 | 4–8 | 5.0 | −0.41 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | crew | 3.95 | 4.84 | 18–5 | 14.5 | +0.89 | 2.1 | 7% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 3.85 | 2.05 | 5–5 | 8.4 | −1.81 | 4.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.0 | 3.44 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.3 | 4.71 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.2 | 3.98 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.2 | 3.55 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 3.26 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Crew | B | 11 | 3.7 | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Crew | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.6 | 3.69 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.69 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 25 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 4.19 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 2.80 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.4 | 3.61 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.7 | 3.07 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.4 | 3.11 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 3.8 | 4.15 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.6 | 3.94 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.7 | 3.79 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.1 | 3.73 |
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.5 | 2.81 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 4.9 | 3.79 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.1 | 3.79 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | B | 5 | 8.8 | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 2.25 |
| APS Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 23 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.2 | 2.55 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.6 | 2.61 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 2.86 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 3.33 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 3.30 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 4.11 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.6 | 3.31 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 3.09 |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.41 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.3 | 3.67 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.4 | 3.83 |
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 3.70 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.9 | 4.00 |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.8 | 1.71 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 3.26 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 3.35 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 26 | 3.6 | 3.27 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.2 | 3.27 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.7 | 3.81 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Intersec Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 3.62 |
| Sperry Top-Sider/ICSA Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 3.26 |
| Sperry Top-Sider/ICSA Women's FINALS Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.3 | 3.25 |
| Reed Trophy, Women's New England Ch Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.8 | 2.83 |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.9 | 3.01 |
| Charleston Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.7 | 2.52 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 12.1 | 2.18 |
| Admiral Alymer's Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 2.95 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.0 | 3.78 |
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.6 | 3.38 |
| Women's Accs Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.5 | 2.42 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 2.56 |
| Stu Nelson Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 3.13 |
| Navy Fall Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.8 | 2.53 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.9 | 3.10 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.0 | 2.73 |
| Finger Lakes Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.0 | 3.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
