Joseph Duplin Trophy

HostTufts
Date03/23/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatLark
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	12–2
2	Boston College	Eagles	11–3
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	8–6
4	Stanford University	Cardinal	6–8
5	Brown University	Bears	8–4
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	7–5
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4–8
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2–10
9	Harvard University	Crimson	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 720 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 42 of 58 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.628 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	10.49 school +0.26	Claire Dennis / Urska Kosir Morgan Kiss / Katherine Gaumond Marlena Fauer / Amanda Salvesen 11–2 Marlena Fauer / Emily Johnson 1–0	92%	12–2 (86%)	−0.9
2	Boston College Eagles	6	7.89 school −0.27	Carolyn Naughton / Kelly Roy Stephanie Hudson / Serena Lofftus Katja Sertl / Shelby Hamilton 2.02	41%	11–3 (79%)	+5.2
3	Tufts University Jumbos	9	7.38 school −0.20, home +0.24	Natalie Salk / Amelia Quinn 3.19 Kate Levinson / Amanda Sommi 6–6 Margaret Bacon / Erin Bondy 7–0 Margaret Bacon / Mara Rettig 1–6 Kate Levinson / Sara Makaretz 2–0	30%	8–6 (57%)	+3.8
4	Stanford University Cardinal	2	9.03 school +0.35	Sarah Mace / Katie Riklin 3.04 Molly Mckinney / Natalie Urban 3.01 Yuki Yoshiyasu / Helena Scutt	68%	6–8 (43%)	−3.5
5	Brown University Bears	4	7.55 school +0.15	Johanna Kincaid / Lydia Whiteford 2.53 Sky Adams / Kristin Altreuter Kelly Mcglynn / Ragna Eide 4–3 Kelly Mcglynn / Nicole Quattrocchi 4–1	44%	8–4 (67%)	+2.8
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	7.78 school −0.06	Rachel Perry / Sara Swanson Haley Powell / Jaye Fahey Annie Schmidt / Samantha Bobo	50%	7–5 (58%)	+1.0
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	7.22 school −0.29	Chloe Lepert / Keren Gu Laura Dunphy / Brooke Winslow 4–4 Hanna Vincent / Taylor Burfield 4–4 Hanna Vincent / Rosalind Lesh 0–4 Laura Dunphy / Audrey Olshefsky 0–4	36%	4–8 (33%)	−0.3
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5	7.52 school +0.41	Lizzy Hamilton / Julia Rew 2.19 Erin Mullins / Kimberly Dempsey Courtney Koos / Elise Engquist 0–7 Courtney Koos / Ayaka Okawa 2–3	43%	2–10 (17%)	−3.2
9	Harvard University Crimson	7	7.47 school +0.32	Morgan Russom / Emma Smith Caitlin Watson / Sydney Karnovsky Sophie Bermudez / Ashleigh Inglis	41%	0–12 (0%)	−4.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Boston College	7.89	10.16	11–3	5.8	+2.28	8.0	<1%
3	Tufts University	7.38	8.82	8–6	4.2	+1.44	3.9	2%
5	Brown University	7.55	8.65	8–4	5.2	+1.09	2.1	8%
6	Roger Williams University	7.78	8.14	7–5	6.0	+0.37	0.2	39%
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7.22	7.09	4–8	4.3	−0.13	0.0	69%
1	Yale University	10.49	9.82	12–2	12.9	−0.66	0.4	90%
4	Stanford University	9.03	7.69	6–8	9.5	−1.34	3.5	99%
8	Bowdoin College	7.52	6.09	2–10	5.2	−1.43	3.0	99%
9	Harvard University	7.47	4.47	0–12	4.9	≤−3.00	8.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carolyn Naughton	Boston College	2.83	5.11	11–3	5.8	+2.28	8.0	<1%
Stephanie Hudson	Boston College	3.06	5.34	11–3	5.8	+2.28	8.0	<1%
Katja Sertl	Boston College	2.02	4.30	11–3	5.8	+2.28	8.0	<1%
Natalie Salk	Tufts University	3.19	4.63	8–6	4.2	+1.44	3.9	2%
Kate Levinson	Tufts University	1.86	3.30	8–6	4.2	+1.44	3.9	2%
Margaret Bacon	Tufts University	1.97	3.41	8–6	4.2	+1.44	3.9	2%
Johanna Kincaid	Brown University	2.53	3.62	8–4	5.2	+1.09	2.1	8%
Sky Adams	Brown University	2.65	3.74	8–4	5.2	+1.09	2.1	8%
Kelly Mcglynn	Brown University	1.88	2.97	8–4	5.2	+1.09	2.1	8%
Rachel Perry	Roger Williams University	1.95	2.32	7–5	6.0	+0.37	0.2	39%
Haley Powell	Roger Williams University	3.03	3.40	7–5	6.0	+0.37	0.2	39%
Annie Schmidt	Roger Williams University	2.53	2.90	7–5	6.0	+0.37	0.2	39%
Chloe Lepert	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.62	2.49	4–8	4.3	−0.13	0.0	69%
Laura Dunphy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.08	1.94	4–8	4.3	−0.13	0.0	69%
Hanna Vincent	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.58	2.44	4–8	4.3	−0.13	0.0	69%
Claire Dennis	Yale University	3.10	2.44	12–2	12.9	−0.66	0.4	90%
Marlena Fauer	Yale University	3.06	2.40	12–2	12.9	−0.66	0.4	90%
Morgan Kiss	Yale University	3.71	3.05	12–2	12.9	−0.66	0.4	90%
Sarah Mace	Stanford University	3.04	1.70	6–8	9.5	−1.34	3.5	99%
Molly Mckinney	Stanford University	3.01	1.67	6–8	9.5	−1.34	3.5	99%
Yuki Yoshiyasu	Stanford University	2.46	1.11	6–8	9.5	−1.34	3.5	99%
Lizzy Hamilton	Bowdoin College	2.19	0.75	2–10	5.2	−1.43	3.0	99%
Erin Mullins	Bowdoin College	2.27	0.84	2–10	5.2	−1.43	3.0	99%
Courtney Koos	Bowdoin College	2.09	0.65	2–10	5.2	−1.43	3.0	99%
Morgan Russom	Harvard University	2.45	-0.55	0–12	4.9	≤−3.00	8.9	>99%
Caitlin Watson	Harvard University	2.27	-0.73	0–12	4.9	≤−3.00	8.9	>99%
Sophie Bermudez	Harvard University	2.10	-0.90	0–12	4.9	≤−3.00	8.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
1	2	Boston College	Brown University	61%
1	3	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	97%
1	4	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	87%
1	5	Tufts University	Harvard University	52%
1	6	Boston College	Roger Williams University	54%
1	7	Yale University	Stanford University	80%
1	8	Brown University	Bowdoin College	50%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	59%
1	10	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	55%
1	11	Boston College	Bowdoin College	55%
1	12	Yale University	Brown University	94%
1	13	Tufts University	Stanford University	16%	upset
1	14	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	65%
1	15	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	57%
1	16	Stanford University	Brown University	83%
1	17	Yale University	Boston College	93%
1	18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	46%	upset
1	19	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	51%
1	20	Roger Williams University	Yale University	6%	upset
1	21	Brown University	Harvard University	50%
1	22	Boston College	Stanford University	24%	upset
1	23	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	47%	upset
1	24	Yale University	Tufts University	96%
1	25	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	77%
1	26	Boston College	Harvard University	59%
1	27	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	59%
1	28	Yale University	Bowdoin College	96%
1	29	Boston College	Tufts University	64%
1	30	Stanford University	Harvard University	82%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	57%
1	32	Tufts University	Brown University	46%	upset
1	33	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	34	Yale University	Harvard University	94%
1	35	Brown University	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	36	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	37	Tufts University	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	38	Boston College	Yale University	7%	upset
1	39	Boston College	Tufts University	62%
1	40	Yale University	Stanford University	82%
1	41	Yale University	Tufts University	96%
1	42	Boston College	Stanford University	24%	upset
1	43	Brown University	Harvard University	51%
1	44	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	58%
1	45	Brown University	Bowdoin College	47%	upset
1	46	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Harvard University	45%	upset
1	47	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
1	48	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	55%
1	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	45%	upset
1	50	Brown University	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	51	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	58%
1	52	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	57%
1	53	Yale University	Tufts University	96%
1	54	Stanford University	Boston College	76%
1	55	Yale University	Boston College	93%
1	56	Tufts University	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	57	Boston College	Tufts University	61%
1	58	Yale University	Stanford University	82%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Eagles	Jumbos	Cardinal	Bears	Hawks	Engineers	Bears	Crimson
Yale University Bulldogs	12–2	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–6	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	6–8	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	8–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–5	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Harvard University Crimson	0–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
2	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
3	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
4	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
5	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
6	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
7	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
8	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
9	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
10	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
11	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
14	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Engineers	1-4-6
15	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
16	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
17	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
18	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
22	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
23	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
24	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
26	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
27	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
29	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
32	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
33	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
34	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Crimson	2-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
36	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
37	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
38	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
39	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
41	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
42	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
43	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
44	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
45	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
46	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
47	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
48	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
49	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
51	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
52	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Engineers	2-3-6
53	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
54	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
56	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
57	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Claire Dennis '13 Marlena Fauer '14 Morgan Kiss '15	Urska Kosir '15 Amanda Salvesen '14 Emily Johnson '16 Katherine Gaumond '15
Boston College	Eagles	Carolyn Naughton '14 Katja Sertl '16 Stephanie Hudson '13	Kelly Roy '13 Shelby Hamilton '14 Serena Lofftus '13
Tufts University	Jumbos	Kate Levinson '15 Margaret Bacon '14 Natalie Salk '13	Sara Makaretz '14 Amanda Sommi '16 Erin Bondy '15 Mara Rettig '15 Amelia Quinn '13
Stanford University	Cardinal	Molly Mckinney '14 Sarah Mace '14 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16	Natalie Urban '15 Katie Riklin '13 Helena Scutt '14
Brown University	Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 Kelly Mcglynn '15 Sky Adams '14	Lydia Whiteford '15 Ragna Eide '16 Nicole Quattrocchi '15 Kristin Altreuter '14
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Annie Schmidt '14 Haley Powell '13 Rachel Perry '15	Samantha Bobo '15 Jaye Fahey '15 Sara Swanson '16
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Chloe Lepert '15 Hanna Vincent '14 Laura Dunphy '15	Keren Gu '14 Rosalind Lesh '16 Taylor Burfield '13 Brooke Winslow '15 Audrey Olshefsky '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Courtney Koos '16 Erin Mullins '16 Lizzy Hamilton '15	Elise Engquist '15 Ayaka Okawa '14 Kimberly Dempsey '14 Julia Rew '16
Harvard University	Crimson	Caitlin Watson '14 Morgan Russom '14 Sophie Bermudez '16	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Emma Smith '15 Ashleigh Inglis '15

Conditions — 03/23/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1004.6 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 24°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.5 kn

avg · max 16.0 kn

Gusts to 31.9 kn

From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1004.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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