Bowdoin College '15
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 19.17 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.110 rating points from 24 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.95 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–20 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 12–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 12–6 against 10.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 2.49 | 2.91 | 12–6 | 10.5 | +0.42 | 0.4 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 3.20 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 5.2 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.3 | 3.85 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 9.8 | — |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 2.36 |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 3.15 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 10 | 15.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.5 | 2.70 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.7 | 3.34 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 9 | 5.3 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.2 | 2.52 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invitational Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.3 | 2.82 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.0 | 3.22 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 2.65 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.3 | 1.94 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 2.38 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 2.58 |
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.2 | 2.94 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 3.27 |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 16.6 | -0.20 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 3.12 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.9 | 1.63 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.5 | 2.31 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.3 | 3.14 |
| Oberg | Skipper | C | 7 | 11.3 | 1.79 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 16 | 10.9 | 1.25 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.2 | 2.11 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 2.18 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 2.25 |
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.4 | 1.92 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 8.0 | 2.71 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 2.69 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.4 | 1.87 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | B | 16 | 8.1 | -0.46 |
| Charles River Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.8 | 2.61 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
