Emily Wick Trophy

Women's
HostCoast Guard
Date04/11/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	70	102	172
2	Brown University	Bears	109	91	200
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	141	97	238
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	114	126	240
5	Cornell University	Big Red	148	115	263
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	164	99	263
7	Boston College	Eagles	141	139	280
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	149	142	291
9	Tufts University	Jumbos	146	148	294
10	University of Rhode Island	Rams	123	172	295
11	University of South Florida	Bulls	159	147	306
12	Connecticut College	Camels	177	131	308
13	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	168	173	341
14	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	194	149	343
15	Dartmouth College	Big Green	201	146	347
16	University of Vermont	Catamounts	158	228	386
17	Santa Clara University	Broncos	208	248	456
18	Harvard University	Crimson	168	303	471

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Yale University	Bulldogs	3	1	5	2	3	7	5	7	1	4	14	8	1	2	1	6	70	Morgan Kiss '15 Natalya Doris '17
Brown University	Bears	4	9	4	8	5	6	2	10	2	1	10	10	16	1	16	5	109	Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-16] Katherine Sudol '16 [1-2, 5-6, 11-16] Lindsey Baab '18 [3-4, 7-10]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	5	14	2	6	13	4	11	3	13	6	2	13	7	4	10	1	114	Dana Rohde '18 Jennifer Lane '15
University of Rhode Island	Rams	1	7	15	11	10	3	7	1	3	13	4	2	17	18	2	9	123	Rachel Bryer '17 [1-16] Marisa Decollibus '17 [1-10] Hannah Scanlon '18 [11-16]
Boston College	Eagles	6	5	9	15	4	11	10	8	4	2	8	14	12	14	12	7	141	Allyson Donahue '17 [1-16] Emily Schalka '15 [1-2, 5-16] Lindsay D'Alessandro '15 [3-4]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	15	17	1	4	11	15	18	2	6	3	13	18	2	6	7	3	141	Chloe Lepert '15 [1-2, 7-14] Laura Dunphy '15 [3-6, 15-16] Samantha Albright '15 [1-14] Chloe Lepert '15 [15-16]
Tufts University	Jumbos	11	11	7	16	7	13	6	11	7	8	5	7	13	7	5	12	146	Maryclaire Kiernan '17 [1-16] Amanda Sommi '16 [1-10] Caitlin Durand '15 [11-16]
Cornell University	Big Red	13	2	6	1	14	12	15	5	8	10	12	9	6	9	11	15	148	Jennifer Borshoff '15 Noelle Crough '18
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	16	4	10	7	16	1	1	18	15	14	16	1	9	10	3	8	149	Andrea Luna '15 Cady Johnson '16
University of Vermont	Catamounts	7	10	3	13	9	18	3	4	16	16	18	6	4	11	9	11	158	Megan Yeigh '16 Lilla Salvesen '18
University of South Florida	Bulls	2	18	13	10	DNF	2	9	13	14	12	3	11	5	3	15	10	159	Alison Knoles '17 Charlie Bess '17
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	17	13	16	14	17	5	12	14	9	7	17	5	3	5	6	4	164	Marissa Golison '16 [1-16] Natasha Skaalrud '16 [1-4] Rachel Ryan '15 [5-16]
Harvard University	Crimson	8	8	14	9	8	9	4	12	5	11	7	12	10	16	18	17	168	Taylor Ladd '18 Kristina Jakobson '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9	3	11	5	1	8	17	9	17	18	1	16	15	15	4	DSQ	168	Erin Mullins '16 [1-16] Lizzy Hamilton '15 [1-10] Dana Bloch '17 [11-16]
Connecticut College	Camels	10	6	8	12	15	10	8	17	18	5	11	4	14	13	13	13	177	Liz Dubovik '15 [1-10] Emilia Clementi '18 [11-16] Eliza Garry '17 [1-10] Alexandra Maurillo '18 [11, 15-16] Serena Cipullo '17 [12-14]
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	12	12	12	17	2	16	13	15	11	9	6	17	18	12	8	14	194	Leslie Poole '16 [1-16] Caya Mcfalls '16 [1-2, 7-14] Kelsea Kierstead '15 [3-6, 15-16]
Dartmouth College	Big Green	18	15	18	3	12	17	16	16	10	15	9	3	11	8	14	16	201	Sarah Williams '16 Sophie Kerr '17
Santa Clara University	Broncos	14	16	17	18	6	14	14	6	12	17	15	15	8	17	17	2	208	Francesca Cappellini '16 Madeleine Fawcett '17

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Brown University	Bears	16	10	2	4	2	7	1	2	8	7	4	5	8	1	13	1	91	Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-16] Nicole Quattrocchi '15 [1-2, 11-16] Olivia Lord '17 [3-10]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2	2	5	14	5	5	6	9	2	8	8	6	12	2	9	2	97	Rosalind Lesh '16 [1-16] Elizabeth Zhang '16 [1-2, 5-16] Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [3-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7	3	1	2	1	1	7	10	5	4	10	12	14	4	10	8	99	Carolyn Smith '17 Julia Monro '17
Yale University	Bulldogs	1	4	13	6	10	8	3	11	10	2	3	1	15	7	4	4	102	Casey Klingler '18 Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17
Cornell University	Big Red	3	5	10	10	4	11	12	6	3	13	5	2	2	8	12	9	115	Quinn Howes '16 Lindsay Gimple '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	8	8	8	9	3	12	9	7	9	10	9	16	1	9	3	5	126	Devon Rohde '15 [1-12] Nikole Barnes '17 [13-16] Erin Morgan '18 [1-12] Hannah Herring '18 [13-16]
Connecticut College	Camels	14	1	4	13	6	2	2	1	6	9	12	10	11	11	17	12	131	Charlotte List '18 [1-10] Rebecca Quirke '17 [11-16] Alix Israel '15 [1-2, 5-10] Alexandra Maurillo '18 [3-4] Isabelle Pieper '18 [11-16]
Boston College	Eagles	15	9	9	5	8	6	5	5	13	6	7	14	3	10	14	10	139	Hannah Lynn '17 Madeleine Loosbrock '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	5	6	3	3	16	14	4	13	4	12	13	11	13	13	1	11	142	Sarah Streater '18 [1-16] Anne Van Der Sangen '18 [1-6] Katelyn Talley '16 [7-16]
Dartmouth College	Big Green	17	BKD	11	15	11	9	11	4	15	14	2	3	5	6	11	3	146	Margaret Kilvert '18 [1-16] Mia Steck '17 [1-2, 11-16] Caroline Lauer '18 [3-10]
University of South Florida	Bulls	10	12	16	7	14	10	8	8	1	1	15	4	6	15	5	15	147	Madison Gates '18 Kayla Burrows '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	4	7	14	8	9	4	14	14	7	15	14	13	7	5	7	6	148	Kate Levinson '15 Emily Lynn '15
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	9	11	DNF	17	7	3	10	15	14	11	6	7	4	3	6	7	149	Kate Klement '17 [1-16] Jennifer Burke '16 [1-2, 5-16] Molly Sitter '15 [3-4]
University of Rhode Island	Rams	6	13	6	1	RAF	13	15	3	16	3	16	9	10	12	16	14	172	Mackenzie Needham '15 Molly Lucyk '16
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	11	16	7	12	13	15	13	12	12	5	1	8	9	14	8	17	173	Courtney Koos '16 [1-16] Olivia Diserio '16 [1-2, 9-16] Catherine Price '18 [3-8]
University of Vermont	Catamounts	12	15	12	11	15	16	17	16	11	16	11	15	16	17	15	13	228	Lindsay Doyle '18 Brittney Manning '18
Santa Clara University	Broncos	13	17	15	16	12	DNF	16	17	DNS	DNS	17	17	17	16	2	16	248	Francesca Dana '18 Madeleine Landry '18
Harvard University	Crimson	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	18	DNS	DNS	303	Olivia Kjorlien '17 Ashleigh Inglis '15

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Boston College Eagles	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17
Brown University Bears	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Connecticut College Camels	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
Cornell University Big Red	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Dartmouth College Big Green	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Harvard University Crimson	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Old Dominion University Monarchs	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
University of Rhode Island Rams	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Santa Clara University Broncos	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
University of South Florida Bulls	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
University of Vermont Catamounts	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
University of Wisconsin Badgers	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Yale University Bulldogs	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Boston College Eagles	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17
Brown University Bears	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Connecticut College Camels	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
Cornell University Big Red	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Dartmouth College Big Green	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Harvard University Crimson	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Old Dominion University Monarchs	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
University of Rhode Island Rams	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Santa Clara University Broncos	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
University of South Florida Bulls	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
University of Vermont Catamounts	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
University of Wisconsin Badgers	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Yale University Bulldogs	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Allyson Donahue '17 [1-16]	Emily Schalka '15 [1-2, 5-16] Lindsay D'Alessandro '15 [3-4]
Eagles	Hannah Lynn '17	Madeleine Loosbrock '17
Bowdoin College	Erin Mullins '16 [1-16]	Lizzy Hamilton '15 [1-10] Dana Bloch '17 [11-16]
Polar Bears	Courtney Koos '16 [1-16]	Olivia Diserio '16 [1-2, 9-16] Catherine Price '18 [3-8]
Brown University	Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick '17 [1-16]	Katherine Sudol '16 [1-2, 5-6, 11-16] Lindsey Baab '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Bears	Johanna Kincaid '15 [1-16]	Nicole Quattrocchi '15 [1-2, 11-16] Olivia Lord '17 [3-10]
Connecticut College	Liz Dubovik '15 [1-10] Emilia Clementi '18 [11-16]	Eliza Garry '17 [1-10] Alexandra Maurillo '18 [11, 15-16] Serena Cipullo '17 [12-14]
Camels	Charlotte List '18 [1-10] Rebecca Quirke '17 [11-16]	Alix Israel '15 [1-2, 5-10] Alexandra Maurillo '18 [3-4] Isabelle Pieper '18 [11-16]
Cornell University	Jennifer Borshoff '15	Noelle Crough '18
Big Red	Quinn Howes '16	Lindsay Gimple '17
Dartmouth College	Sarah Williams '16	Sophie Kerr '17
Big Green	Margaret Kilvert '18 [1-16]	Mia Steck '17 [1-2, 11-16] Caroline Lauer '18 [3-10]
Harvard University	Taylor Ladd '18	Kristina Jakobson '16
Crimson	Olivia Kjorlien '17	Ashleigh Inglis '15
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Chloe Lepert '15 [1-2, 7-14] Laura Dunphy '15 [3-6, 15-16]	Samantha Albright '15 [1-14] Chloe Lepert '15 [15-16]
Engineers	Rosalind Lesh '16 [1-16]	Elizabeth Zhang '16 [1-2, 5-16] Jamila Smith-Dell '16 [3-4]
Old Dominion University	Andrea Luna '15	Cady Johnson '16
Monarchs	Sarah Streater '18 [1-16]	Anne Van Der Sangen '18 [1-6] Katelyn Talley '16 [7-16]
Santa Clara University	Francesca Cappellini '16	Madeleine Fawcett '17
Broncos	Francesca Dana '18	Madeleine Landry '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Marissa Golison '16 [1-16]	Natasha Skaalrud '16 [1-4] Rachel Ryan '15 [5-16]
Seahawks	Carolyn Smith '17	Julia Monro '17
Tufts University	Maryclaire Kiernan '17 [1-16]	Amanda Sommi '16 [1-10] Caitlin Durand '15 [11-16]
Jumbos	Kate Levinson '15	Emily Lynn '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dana Rohde '18	Jennifer Lane '15
Bears	Devon Rohde '15 [1-12] Nikole Barnes '17 [13-16]	Erin Morgan '18 [1-12] Hannah Herring '18 [13-16]
University of Rhode Island	Rachel Bryer '17 [1-16]	Marisa Decollibus '17 [1-10] Hannah Scanlon '18 [11-16]
Rams	Mackenzie Needham '15	Molly Lucyk '16
University of South Florida	Alison Knoles '17	Charlie Bess '17
Bulls	Madison Gates '18	Kayla Burrows '17
University of Vermont	Megan Yeigh '16	Lilla Salvesen '18
Catamounts	Lindsay Doyle '18	Brittney Manning '18
University of Wisconsin	Leslie Poole '16 [1-16]	Caya Mcfalls '16 [1-2, 7-14] Kelsea Kierstead '15 [3-6, 15-16]
Badgers	Kate Klement '17 [1-16]	Jennifer Burke '16 [1-2, 5-16] Molly Sitter '15 [3-4]
Yale University	Morgan Kiss '15	Natalya Doris '17
Bulldogs	Casey Klingler '18	Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.8 kn

avg · max 12.2 kn

Gusts to 29.4 kn

From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1012.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 15 kn · W 8 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Coast Guard: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.15 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.36 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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