U. S. Coast Guard Academy '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 23.15 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.081 rating points from 236 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.08 (fleet 1.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 25–53 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 15–28 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 8–13 |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 2–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (78 matches) the record is 25–53 against 24.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.25 | 1.88 | 5–7 | 5.9 | −0.37 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | crew | 1.94 | 3.12 | 8–8 | 4.4 | +1.17 | 3.2 | 3% |
| 2018-03-24 | BC Team Race | crew | 2.25 | 1.54 | 2–13 | 3.5 | −0.71 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.68 | 2.96 | 8–13 | 6.9 | +0.29 | 0.2 | 37% |
| 2015-04-04 | Barque Eagle Team Race | crew | 2.68 | 1.88 | 2–12 | 3.5 | −0.80 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 8.3 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| BC Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 11.1 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay | Crew | B | 9 | 5.4 | — |
| Central Series | Crew | B | 8 | 4.9 | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Crew | C | 9 | 11.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 13 | 12.9 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 17.4 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | B | 6 | 10.5 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | B | 9 | 7.1 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 10.2 | — |
| Central Series 1 | Crew | A | 6 | 6.5 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | B | 16 | 9.4 | — |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 11.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 3.2 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Crew | C | 7 | 8.9 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Crew | B | 4 | 12.0 | — |
| Lake Champlain Open | Crew | A, B | 9 | 7.0 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | A | 11 | 8.3 | — |
| Chris Loder Trophy | Crew | B | 10 | 5.3 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 8.2 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 9.0 | — |
| Barque Eagle Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | B | 9 | 15.8 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 2.8 | — |
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Crew | A | 16 | 15.1 | — |
| PC Invitational | Crew | B | 4 | 3.8 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Crew | B | 4 | 9.8 | — |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 16.2 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Crew | A | 12 | 10.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
