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Women's Weekday Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 24
2 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 34
3 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 35
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 59
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 76
6 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 87
7 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 A 1 2 5 1 9 Liz Dubovik '15
Alix Israel '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears B 2 1 2 6 11 Kayla Ellis '16
Erin Morgan '18
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 A 6 4 1 2 13 Alexandra Romagnoli '15
Lea Bushnell '15
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 B 4 5 3 3 15 Emilia Clementi '18
Victoria Allen '16
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 B 3 8 4 7 22 Charlotte List '18 [1-4]
Isabelle Pieper '18 [1-3]
Kira Kirk '18 [4]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears A 5 3 7 8 23 Dana Rohde '18 [1-3]
Devon Rohde '15 [4]
Devon Rohde '15 [1-3]
Dana Rohde '18 [4]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 A 7 11 6 4 28 Eliza Garry '17 [1-2]
Rebecca Quirke '17 [3-4]
Olivia Liebnick '16 [1-2]
Serena Cipullo '17 [3-4]
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 B 9 9 8 5 31 Alexandra Maurillo '18 [1-4]
Kira Kirk '18 [1]
Kim Bolick '15 [2-4]
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 11 7 9 9 36 Jennifer Lee '17
Elizabeth Rawlinson '15
Brown University Brown University Bears B 10 6 11 10 37 Marina Cano '17
Grace Gagnon '18
Brown University Brown University Bears A 8 10 10 11 39 Alexandra Swanson '16
Tristan Macaneney '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 12 12 13 13 50 Marina Merchant '18
Lily Doolin '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 14 13 12 12 51 Alexandra Rice '16
Shannon Nardi '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 13 14 14 14 55 Amanda Balbi '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears1111
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears6666
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies7777
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 12222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 23333
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 34444
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats5555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears8888
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears13131313
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies14141414
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 19999
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 210101010
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 311111111
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats12121212

Conditions — 10/08/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From WSW (239°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1008.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Coast Guard: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.48 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →