Brown University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 3.29 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.091 rating points from 127 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.40 (fleet 0.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 17–16 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | — | 15–13 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 2–2 |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 0–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 17–15 against 20.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | crew | 2.38 | 1.08 | 4–12 | 7.8 | −1.30 | 3.5 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race | crew | 3.11 | 6.11 | 3–0 | 2.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 66% |
| 2018-03-04 | Harvard Women's Team Race | crew | 3.07 | 2.80 | 8–1 | 8.2 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 2017-11-04 | The Mike Horn Trophy | crew | 1.90 | 2.17 | 2–2 | 1.8 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 9.0 | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 8.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | B | 8 | 10.8 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Crew | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 9.6 | — |
| The Mike Horn Trophy | Crew | TR | 5 | 60% | — |
| Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 4.8 | — |
| It's The Crew's Regatta | Crew | B | 3 | 9.0 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | A | 3 | 1.7 | — |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 7.0 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 10.0 | — |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 1 | 9.0 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.9 | — |
| Southern 5 | Crew | A | 9 | 4.3 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A, B | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | B | 7 | 10.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 8.1 | — |
| O'Toole | Crew | B | 6 | 6.2 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Crew | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 2 | 12.5 | — |
| The Crews Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | -0.85 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 7 on Salt Pond | Crew | B | 8 | 6.6 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Crew | A | 5 | 8.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 9.2 | — |
| Professor No Ringer | Crew | A | 5 | 6.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
