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Harvard Women's Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 8–1
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 7–2
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2–7
4 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,698 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.444 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Brown University
Bears		19.56
school +0.28		Lindsey Baab / Grace Gagnon 3.07
Hannah Steadman / Annabelle Hutchinson 3.10
Ragna Agerup / Maxine De Havenon 3.04		91%8–1 (89%)−0.2
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		27.57
school −0.11		Greta Farrell / Kaila Pfrang
Annie Hughes / Tiffany Xi
Emily Haig / Brooke Mcgoldrick		47%7–2 (78%)+2.8
3Tufts University
Jumbos		46.74
school +0.08		Molly Pleskus / Taylor Hart 2.56
Talia Toland / Lucy Robison
Lindsay Powers / Maria Brush		25%2–7 (22%)−0.2
4Harvard University
Crimson		37.19
school −0.12, home +0.41		Taylor Gavula / Emily Wang 2.52
Lucy Wilmot / Emma Jakobson 2.40
Catherine Kerner / Jessica Williams 1.89		37%1–8 (11%)−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology7.579.507–24.2+1.923.63%
3Tufts University6.746.572–72.2−0.170.072%
1Brown University9.569.298–18.2−0.270.082%
4Harvard University7.195.421–83.3−1.772.699%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Greta FarrellMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.514.437–24.2+1.923.63%
Annie HughesMassachusetts Institute of Technology2.284.207–24.2+1.923.63%
Lindsey BaabBrown University3.072.808–18.2−0.270.082%
Taylor GavulaHarvard University2.520.761–83.3−1.772.699%
Catherine KernerHarvard University1.890.121–83.3−1.772.699%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvard University56%
12Brown UniversityTufts University95%
13Tufts UniversityHarvard University38%upset
14Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBrown University11%upset
15Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University70%
16Brown UniversityHarvard University92%
27Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvard University60%
28Brown UniversityTufts University94%
29Tufts UniversityHarvard University40%upset
210Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology88%
211Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University70%
212Brown UniversityHarvard University91%
313Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyHarvard University61%
314Brown UniversityTufts University94%
315Harvard UniversityTufts University60%
316Brown UniversityMassachusetts Institute of Technology87%
317Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyTufts University70%
318Brown UniversityHarvard University91%

Round 1

TeamRec.BearsEngineersJumbosCrimson
Brown University Bears2–1✕LWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers3–0W✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos1–2LL✕W
Harvard University Crimson0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BearsEngineersJumbosCrimson
Brown University Bears3–0✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–1L✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos1–2LL✕W
Harvard University Crimson0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BearsEngineersJumbosCrimson
Brown University Bears3–0✕WWW
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers2–1L✕WW
Tufts University Jumbos0–3LL✕L
Harvard University Crimson1–2LLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
2 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-4-5 def. Brown University Bears 2-3-6
5 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
6 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-5
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-5-6
8 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
9 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-4-5
10 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 3-4-6
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-6
12 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6
13 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Harvard University Crimson 4-5-6
14 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Tufts University Jumbos 4-5-6
15 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
16 Brown University Bears 1-3-6 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-4-5
17 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/04/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine1.7 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1016.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Harvard — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Harvard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Harvard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (59 labelled fleet-race days at Harvard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →